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Messages - breakage1

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Ask the Experts / It is the tail wagging the dog
« on: August 21, 2021, 01:48:55 AM »
This has little to nothing to do with inefficiencies in the pools.  This will still take place regardless of whether bots are banned or not.

It is 99.99percent a reaction to the out of tote action.
It is a case of the tail wagging the dog.

As long as we have only one place to bet-into the exorbitant take out pools with laughable rebates and are playing vs the world-whom can bet into the pools (with higher rebates), bookies or more relevant for this topic-the low take out exchanges. This will continue to happen.

it does not take a bot to look and see an animal trading at 5/1 on the Asian exchange and see 10/1 in the tote and think hmmm...........

add in foreigners only bet in the US tote when the US tote is offering the bet price in the world insuring US players will never receive the best price in the world............and well. BOl with that.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Fixed odds wagering
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:33:48 PM »
Oddly they do already pay.  Betfair for example has an agreement in place with numerous US entities while offering fixed odds and exchange betting to the Euros on US racing.

Not only is the avg US punter paying the highest prices to bet but we get to subsidize the global racing world by shipping insane millions and millions in purses to foreign connections on BC day. Largely borne off of us paying the highest prices to bet on our races in the world.

But hey BC CEO Fravel and his amongst the highest paid executives in all of gambling pay package for hosting a two day meet do appreciate the support.


*fwiw the CD stock price/take out posts. Ignoring that Churchill\'s racing business absent the derby declined for 6yrs in a row after the take out hike until last year was poor form.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Fixed odds wagering
« on: October 18, 2019, 06:06:38 PM »
The ultra abbreviated version.

During the upcoming Breeders Cup-

the avg euro can bet these races at numerous fixed odds bookies, several betting exchanges or the US tote.

the avg Aussie/Asian can bet these races at numerous fixed odds bookies, several betting exchanges or the US tote.

the avg American will be betting into only the US tote.

it is beyond insanely ridiculous.

Hope that helps.

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Ask the Experts / The Wicked North-1994 Big Cap-DeSormeaux sues over DQ and lost
« on: May 06, 2019, 02:24:54 PM »
I did not read all the posts in between, not sure if this was mentioned or not.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-04-30-sp-52286-story.html

It was litigated they had experts w lasers etc..........

and lost.

oddly I did not see any links to the actual court case but do recall that it took place.

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Ask the Experts / Re: more trouble at SA
« on: March 14, 2019, 04:43:01 PM »
I read the proposal-not only sounds great but seems cause to raise takeout to pay for it.  I doubt anything would hardly change under these protocols.

Send a few of the cheating beyond comprehension horsemen or the morally bankrupt vets to prison and see if that helps.

I\'m very confident that if I rigged races on a daily basis being bet upon nationwide that I would see the inside of a prison cell.

Meanwhile didn\'t I see Bianacobra back in the news recently?

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Ask the Experts / Re: Santa Anita
« on: March 06, 2019, 08:45:17 PM »
Ritvo-LOL.  In some cases they could run on marshmallow................

Maybe they just saved the lives of the Baffert hopefuls?

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Ask the Experts / -900/+180
« on: June 04, 2018, 02:26:50 PM »
A match race thru Laurel from elsewhere-

but the point is BOL attracting anyone new with a positive IQ when have odds on offer such as that which of course is nothing more than a close up POV of the usurious takeout.

and this is simulcasted from who knows where-LRL\'s costs are close to nil.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Late Odds Changes
« on: May 26, 2018, 07:39:10 PM »
Why can\'t they just update the pools significantly more frequently?

Wall St went from 15mins delay before the TGJB/FNN Score days to instant.

Racing is still stuck in the stone age and in this regard it is to the benefit of a select few.

It is odd to see the P4 in the article as the multi leg win bets do not usually reflect the depth of the plunge that the win. ex, tri and super pools do.

fwiw this is in part why Derby day, Preakness day etc....are the best betting days of the year. So many tracks are open at once and so many races take place that the influence of the groups is diluted.

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Ask the Experts / Re: NEW JERSEY SPORTS BETTING-AIN'T DEAD YET
« on: May 19, 2018, 10:02:42 PM »
It matters a lot in sport\'s futures. It sucks to tie up money for the length of a season if same bet can be made on credit.  With some of them a case can be made one is better off putting the cash into a CD given the length of the season and the small profit margins in futures betting.

My general opinion is the gambling tide raises and lowers all ships.
There are very few losers if any here and nothing but winners.
Although like all gambling projections the projections are ludicrous.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Justify to show
« on: May 19, 2018, 09:50:02 PM »
Good job.

I and I\'m guessing others were fairly dumbfounded after the fact at the place and show.

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Ask the Experts / Triple Crown prop out to over even money
« on: May 19, 2018, 09:44:36 PM »
You\'d think the horse was put up by DQ or something.

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Ask the Experts / Nevada Sportsbooks avg hold 5.5% since 1984
« on: April 11, 2018, 09:19:29 PM »
https://infograph.venngage.com/ps/Ji3DLdshmYA/8-facts-about-nevada-sports-betting

There seemed to be some confusion when I last posted the avg nationwide slot hold around 9%.

These take outs are 100% completely independent of the underlying costs.

The slot machines companies, casinos and sports book take out is designed to maximize their bottom line.  If they thought 20% take out would fly like it does in horse racing, the local slot machines would take 20%.  After decades of taking these bets, they determined these take out rates maximize the bottom line for the house.   Something one would think horse racing would be interested in pursuing. Instead the SCOTUS is probably going to overturn the sport\'s betting ban and gamblers nationwide will yet again have another gaming option far more appetizing than horse racing.


BTW how about these odds plungers lately? Horse that went to the lead in the Wood goes fr 15/1 to 7/1 with a million in the pool.  Sunland derby winner goes from 7/1 to 3/1 with $500K in the pool.  Great stuff. Get to pay usurious take out rates and take wild guesses at the final prices.

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Ask the Experts / National fantasy sports hold like national slot machine hold is around 10%
« on: October 19, 2017, 09:39:32 PM »
Yet horse racing is still trying to ram that square peg into that round hole of much higher than that takeout.


About $320million in revenue on $3.2billion in handle from fantasy sports in the article below.

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/16152/draftkings-fanduel-dfs-revenue/?

Some portion of that would be going to racing if not for the prohibitive take out rates.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Navarro YouTube Video
« on: September 22, 2017, 04:18:22 PM »
If I was on video boasting of juicing horses, illegal betting etc.... I would be worried about more than stall denial/fines etc......penalties being levied by the sport.

This is felonious conduct in every jurisdiction in the nation.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Navarro YouTube Video
« on: August 26, 2017, 01:16:40 PM »
Thanks for posting the video.

My thoughts are along the lines of water is wet and I am skeptical that any bookie is taking on $20K of exposure out of the tote except from proven losers.

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