Ask The Experts

Hello Silver,

I know stats can be useful. I have never embraced them, but know they have a place in the equation.

I also don\'t have a great memory, and am too lazy to do research. But didn\'t Six Perfections and Karakontie win from post 13? Must have been elsewhere, but still.......

I\'m not speaking to the chances of anyone specific running this weekend.

Hello Silver,

I wanted to know why Mystik Dan is going in the Mile instead of the Classic.

Sorry if this has been sorted out before. I can\'t keep up with everything.

Hello Silver

I have been playing for over 50 years. I\'m sure I\'m down many thousands of dollars over the years. I don\'t have regrets except for my reluctance to change what wasn\'t working. I remember clearly when rolling pick threes came to AP. Unfortunately, I had a tremendous day not long afterwards, and thought this would continue. What a mistake.
Don\'t get me wrong, some of my best scores have been horizontal. I bought furniture for my house thanks to a day at the Kee fall meet 1998.

But those kind of scores are rare. My favorite line ever was uttered by a P6 winner. He said \"It couldn\'t have rained on a drier crop.\" Can you relate? I can.

I may have finally learned my lesson - the right one. Vertical betting. Have you ever started a horizontal with a nice price only to see it die on the vine later? Didn\'t score on that good opinion? That is/was me.

That won\'t happen again. I hardly play horizontal beyond doubles. If I must, I place a $10 limit on such wagers. It is a defensive position that allows the \"lightning strikes\" possibility. I recently cashed 5/6 on a $3 ticket at NYRA. It paid $12k with the one I missed. I do not say \"what if\".

My conversion has been recent, and not without loss lessons. But these days I can play a race for $6 with a chance to get 20-1 or better every time. Few supers pay less than $10 for a dime. That is 100-1. Of course I\'m not playing it straight, but I can find a key. Early results are promising.

Think about it. The game is full of players who do well hitting at 20%. I\'m talking about jockeys/trainers, but you could apply the same logic to baseball, etc.... What are the chances a batter will get five straight hits? Not very good. When you start spreading you risk playing \"not to lose\" instead of going for the win. It is so great after a race that doesn\'t go your (my) way to simply turn the page and start it all again instead of trying to begin another PickN that is subject to the randomness and misreads that will always be part of the game.
Rich C recently made a key point - \"How good are you?\" Know your limits.

Hello Fairmount,

Good information on the family. I regularly do this type of research, time permitting. I also note TG has family performance numbers when possible.

At one point maybe 2 years ago it occurred to me that the fly in the ointment is the trainer variable. It is rare to find all the siblings going to the same conditioner. To quote Tom Ainslie - \"Training beats breeding\". This goes against the \"controlled environment\" that research values.

I think the kind of information you researched is useful. I only wanted to point out this (training) factor that I didn\'t take into account for a long time.

Yeah - I blew that one. Thanks Jerry.

Having a command of language is important. So is spelling, lol.

Hello Silver,

Fort Washington (6-1) raced one time at CD, a bit over a year ago. It was the first race of 2024, and he never picked up his feet after breaking funny.

Is that a \"thumb\" race in your opinion? He ran super in his next start at Monmouth. It gives me pause when a runner doesn\'t perform on a surface he returns to. I will sometimes employ my thumb. What do you think?

Robertino ran one yesterday at CD. Race 4 ---  Great Escape ran last.