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Messages - Bystander

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Ask the Experts / Re: It was a crying "sham"e
« on: June 02, 2003, 03:03:50 PM »
Agree with the whole post - it is just sad that you had to say that Sham\'s time \"was\" second best in history. I remember being pissed off with Monarchos\'s derby time because it \"unseated\" Sham as being the second fastest derby of all time.  I am curious what the fastest Ragozin/Brown Derby numbers of all time have been.  I am also curious what the fastest losing number has been. It is conceivable that the fast derby of all time was actually a losing effort.

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Ask the Experts / Century City
« on: April 07, 2003, 08:56:26 PM »
Kudos to Thorograph on the pick of this horse (especially marking it the strong B+).  At the odds he went off, he was definitely a value play worth betting since you only had to go back the his second last race to find the best number of anybody.  However, looking at the sheets, it was a pretty competitive race.  I have two questions.  One, why were the threshold odds 9-2?  I would not have considered the horse a good bet at 5-1.  At 10-1 he was a solid bet.  At 20-1, he was a super bet.  I am just curious where the 9-2 came from as opposed to 8-1 or something like that.  Two, it seemed like the analyst thought it was very likely the horse would come right back to the good number.  Why is that?  The horse only had to be at its normal level to be competitive, but coming back to the low number it would dominate.  However, I would think that the chances of coming right back to that number were low at best and counter-balanced by the risk the number was a knock out number and the horse might not even come back to its normal level.  All that being said, it was a great pick by your picker.

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Ask the Experts / Re: Will Buddy Gill Bounce??
« on: April 05, 2003, 01:00:25 AM »
Have watched all the disputes going on between both boards over the last 5 years (or however long it has been).  Interesting. Handicapped this race using both Ragozin and Thorograph.  Although there are lots of differences on individual horses both in terms of relative number strength and pattern, my conclusion on the race ends up being the same regardless of which product I look at.  

The horse with the strongest number already run looks too good.  Although a lot of people seem to think he is spent, his pattern on both sheet products is actually excellent.  If you were to add 5 points to all of his numbers on either set of sheets, people would be slobbering over this horse as a pattern play -- in normal situations, I believe most rational handicappers would forgive the last number (not that is sucks on its own right).  I do not know where he will be Kentucky Derby Day, but I am sure he will run the best number on both products on April 5....would be afraid a bad trip will allow a slower horse to win but the jockey change does give me some comfort.

Don\'t know how much value will end up being there when all is said and done, but, if the price is right, this could be a solid punch play.

Good Luck to all!

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