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« on: May 17, 2011, 03:34:52 PM »
I watched the overhead view of the race on NBC (it\'s posted on the web site). Nehro and AK were in the same path first turn -- watch closely, as the pan shot is deceptive -- it does make Nehro appear to be outside AK, but take a pencil and some paper and mark off how far each horse is from the rail at several points on the turn -- they are in the same path.
AK was slightly outside Nehro briefly on the 2nd turn. AK beat Nehro by 2.75 lengths, which equates to 1.38 points, assuming 1 point = 1 length @ 5 furlongs. Tack on a few feet for being slightly wider 2nd turn and you\'re at about 1.5 points, not quite the 1.75 on Ragozin, but a LOT closer than the difference TG has (.25 points).
I have no idea how Trakus figured that Nehro traveled 27 feet more.
Also, and more interesting, looking at the entire field, if you compare the Ragozin figures for the horses that finished 2-19, TG apparently has every single horse being wider than AK.
For instance, Ragozin has AK beating Nehro by 1.75 points. TG by .25 points, a difference of 1.5. In every instance, the delta between AK\'s number and the beaten horse\'s number is greater with Ragozin than with Brown, which would indicate that TG sees every other horse as being wider than AK, unless their is another variable at play. It cannot be weight or wind or track condition, so what is it?
For the horses that finished 12th and higher, the difference between their figure and AK\'s versus Ragozin\'s is 2.25 - 2.50 points! For the 8-11 finishers, it\'s 1.50 to 1.75 points, and for 1-7 it is .50 to 1.50 points. So, the more lengths each horse was beaten, the greater the discrepancy. And in every instance, TG has the beaten horse\'s number closer to AK\'s than Ragozin.
This is a very consistent pattern of bunching the numbers together so that there is a smaller difference in figure between the 2-19 finishers and the winner. 18 out of 18. How does that make sense?
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