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Ask the Experts / Re: Dare I ask?
« on: November 04, 2023, 06:42:47 PM »
Ho. Cargi. Deedee madloba!!
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Ask the Experts / Re: Del Mar -- CAWs
« on: July 24, 2023, 02:23:26 PM »
Thanks for the response, Rresnik. I couldn\'t agree more with the pick and pray format. I can really focus on handicapping, and, with the head to head format, playing a favorite actually makes sense, since you are forced to make a choice and can\'t skip races looking for the right\" price/fair odds.\" Head to head pick and pray may be the purest handicapping money making opportunity there is.
I went ahead and opened a horsetourneys account this past saturday and played one head to head pick and pray sat, sun and today. Probably beginners luck, but I\'ve won all three. Takeout is only 10% for this format. I\'ve stuck to the $22 format, so I\'m sure the competition will get tougher if I go up in stakes.
There is a plethora of different opportunities, and seems there are some big players on the site.
I went ahead and opened a horsetourneys account this past saturday and played one head to head pick and pray sat, sun and today. Probably beginners luck, but I\'ve won all three. Takeout is only 10% for this format. I\'ve stuck to the $22 format, so I\'m sure the competition will get tougher if I go up in stakes.
There is a plethora of different opportunities, and seems there are some big players on the site.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Del Mar -- CAWs
« on: July 22, 2023, 06:34:34 AM »
As a small player, do I get a \"fairer shake\" if I play exclusively in tournaments on horsetourneys.com, or does Stronach and their 1st bet gouge me there as well? I play 2/5 no limit because that\'s where I belong based on my bankroll and skill, not the 25/50 game. The dominance of CAWs has turned all the pools into a 100/200 game, and I don\'t belong there. I know enough to know when I\'m the fish at the table, and I\'m definitely the fish at the table when it comes to pari-mutuel horse racing.
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Ask the Experts / Race 12 Bigger Picture
« on: March 30, 2019, 08:35:31 AM »
Another lifetime top pair, but not off a layoff. Lots of rest going into todays race. Can Maker\'s 8 yo gelding deliver at 6-1 ML?
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Ask the Experts / Race 12 Pagliacci and Brucarita
« on: March 30, 2019, 08:30:43 AM »
To continue the thread. This is on turf. Pag relatively heavily raced, but well spaced 5 yo, just slightly broke through lifetime top, but really not off a layoff. Plenty of rest into todays race.
Bruc another veteran, but did just pair life time top off a layoff. Another to watch the angle on.
Bruc another veteran, but did just pair life time top off a layoff. Another to watch the angle on.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Race 11 Gleason
« on: March 30, 2019, 08:25:31 AM »
surmise that JB is more positive on Gleason than Code of Honor.
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Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW
« on: March 30, 2019, 08:22:39 AM »
tnks. Opinion on my Gleason observation?
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Ask the Experts / Race 11 Gleason
« on: March 30, 2019, 08:21:56 AM »
A TAP runner with a similar pattern to Code of Honor, i.e., pairing previous top first out. Difference is, Gleason needs to improve a bit more than Code of Honor to be relevant, and is a 4 yo gelding, where Code is a 3 yo. CH in route, Gleason in sprint. Be interesting to see how this \"explosive\" pattern performs today with these two horses.
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Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW
« on: March 30, 2019, 07:36:49 AM »
Jerry,
In Code of Honor\'s case, isn\'t it a good sign that he just paired his 2yo top, even though he only has 4 weeks rest now going into the Fla Derby rather than your analysis that he hasn\'t improved this year? Isn\'t this what used to be referred to as an \"explosive\" pattern?\" Or is the \"pairing of life time top first start off a layoff\" more of an older horse explosive angle? Thanks
In Code of Honor\'s case, isn\'t it a good sign that he just paired his 2yo top, even though he only has 4 weeks rest now going into the Fla Derby rather than your analysis that he hasn\'t improved this year? Isn\'t this what used to be referred to as an \"explosive\" pattern?\" Or is the \"pairing of life time top first start off a layoff\" more of an older horse explosive angle? Thanks
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Ask the Experts / Re: Sat 10th Belmont
« on: June 08, 2018, 02:15:49 PM »
Thanks JB. Your attention to detail is appreciated!
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Ask the Experts / Belmont Stakes
« on: June 06, 2018, 05:50:57 PM »
I just looked at the TG\'s, and it appears it\'s Vino Rosso\'s race to lose, especially if someone goes early with Justify. Haven\'t looked at the seminar yet. What am I missing? Help me out, Frank!
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Ask the Experts / Re: light late p5 payout at TB
« on: March 20, 2018, 06:58:37 AM »
Thanks for the cogent and civil reply, math. Long division, my old nemesis, gets me again. Great explanation of what fair payoffs should be.
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Ask the Experts / Re: light late p5 payout at TB
« on: March 19, 2018, 08:13:33 AM »
Thanks for your input, Frank! I will try to be a good TG citizen this year! I apologize if I have offended you in the past. Cheers!
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Ask the Experts / light late p5 payout at TB
« on: March 18, 2018, 09:45:17 PM »
TB had a ~$26K carry over into it\'s late p5 Sunday. It paid 9206.80 for a .50 cent bet. I got suspicious when I saw the late p4 come back $11,334.85. According to my calculations, and mathcapper, please check me, the .50 cent win parlay on the last 5 TB races paid $26,813.16, for a massive underlay in the P5 that had a modest carryover. Winning prices in the p5 were 3, 44, 22.20, 24.40, and 6. I didn\'t even bother to figure out the p4 parlay, but it looks light too. To add insult to injury, the p4 has a 18% takeout, the p5, %15.
Even when I win, it feels like I\'m losing.
Even when I win, it feels like I\'m losing.