Ask The Experts

I\'m \"looking\" at the Super Derby and my only questions are how much will the rail horse be over-bet , and what are the chances a horse could repeat a Delaware number at LAD  ? However , with that said - if morning line odds hold up , it\'s probably worth a flyer at 3-1 imo

Fair enough point(s) Rick B , \'Top and others but , I wasn\'t necessarily intending to bash the Trainer - but only that type of campaign IMO.

... but now while we are on the subject ,and speaking personally as a sheets player only and to qualify these and earlier remarks as such  . Unless I\'m mistaken , I have read here on this forum and as well in many other well respected sources of information elsewhere , that a horse may drop up to 20 lbs in weight after a race - and also ,in a legitimate\"Catastrophic / Rear Breakdowns study(s)\" posted on this site a few years ago , there is a direct connection between workout miles /racing miles and a higher degree breakdowns .

Just as something to consider in my view ,and this does not pertain to anybody in this conversation or any horse at this strip but-  what is one to make of horses at 4+5 yo and older running 12 to 14 point top efforts and the like ? Even on a best possible circumstance imho, late developing campaigns and late developing breeding (those unraced at 2 + 3 yo not-with-standing ) can really only account for a couple points worth  of \"development \" !

Perhaps I\'m a fiscally conservative and socially liberal type but imho , I favor the use of Lasix because I feel it\'s \"good\" for the horses who are at varying degree\'s of being bleeders , but I would like to see Zero tolerance with use of other\"medications\" or \"substances\"..

There is quite a bit of history with that Trainer and certainly any speculation that is on the table with Dutrow would be perfectly understandable - even just common sense imo , at least as a handicapper and on an Academic level as well . Not sure - but OK I guess that I don\'t get the Dutrow / Abrams connection , however the way I personally see things  ,it\'s apple\'s and oranges -they are in 2 completely different leagues

I\'m just up the coast adjacent to the Verazano Narrows and we did take strong late afternoon thunder storms with enough rain , and it got worse to the south . I wouldn\'t expect shades of the latest MTH BC , but a hvy / yld Turf course at the shore seems likely Saturday imo . ..

The Florida preacher guy missed it by a mile imo - where was he before the \'08 BC at MTH . ..

Personally, I\'ve been keeping my fingers crossed that the same old approach to dealing these guys who have excessive of medication violations in their background isn\'t going to be the currently used model .

It\'s difficult to imagine imo that any track ,jurisdiction or circuit would want any part of the worst medication rules offenders in the game - but seem reluctant to do more than presently are . ..

Although the way i see it , circuits like Penn National have got to be keeping hope alive with the recent serious upgrades to their medication policies at the track - so maybe anything is possible in 2011 .

Hi miff , What do you think - should I hold my breath ? I\'ve been waiting to determine whether there is an \"acclimation curve \" for the horses given the specific track/racing conditions at SA .  It doesn\'t sound like any modifications to the base of the racing surface are being discussed by track management . ..

Best I can tell on synthetics is the Dead Rail\'s seem to manifest themselves in a manner that effects a path(or path\'s) off the fence and not necessarily the rail itself - guessing it\'s almost like a track bias issue  . ..