Ask The Experts

*** As I write this the sky\'s are threatening but I don\'t believe any significant rain will fall in Toronto .
The turf course should be very firm - as we haven\'t had rain in awhile .
I think Todd kabel will exact some revenge today on his earlier mistake this year , picking Mobil over Wando in the Queen\'s Plate. To me Soaring Free is the real deal . His connections excel on the turf - the wide post shouldn\'t be a problem as he has the speed to sit off Chopinina and it\'s a long run to the turn .
Wando is an absolute , with both hands - BET AGAINST .

A few other observations :

6th race - I think Volga will be overbet - 5yo with an iffy line . If the course favors speed - Ginger Gold off her last could be tough .

8th Race - If Kabel can give Battlements a hustling ride early from the fence he could last for a big piece .

bj

*** Three weeks ago I posted that Mineshaft was a bet against due to his post , weight and 3 neg figs in a row .He then ran TG\'s best ever # - and lost.
   In for a buck and a bundle - I\'ll take another shot against him today . An additional negative that I see besides the possibility of a moon-shot bounce ,is the rail draw . At this distance at Belmont the starting gate is on the clubhouse turn - so it may be somewhat difficult to get a good position from the fence .
    I think Volponi is the key horse to hit the exacta . He has the line of a good healthy horse , and with the addition of blinkers he should fire his best today .
   Hero\'s Tribute will be a price off his last . The horse seems to have a history of gate reluctance and bad starts , save the last bad one he looks solid .
   Until Harlan\'s Holiday shows something postive , he is a bet against as horses can take awhile to recover from the Dubai experience.
    Frankel usually moves up lightly raced horses with some scope for improvement . Dollar Bill is a bet against . If he wins - I swear a blood-oath to blindly bet Frankel in every Grade 1 going forward.
    Volponi may rate a win bet at 3-1 - but the key play is a prime exacta box of Hero\'s Tribute and Volponi - savers are Volponi with Judge\'s Case and Evening Attire .bj

*** After perusing the sheets for this race , it looks like jockey Todd Kabel may have made a mistake . He is named on Mobil & Wando - but it has been widely reported that he has opted for the former.
   Wando is the faster of the two horses , has a nice looking line and has done nothing wrong in his career . The BC Juvenile was a toss-out as he had an impossible post . His last was an incremental top - just over a point through his 2 yo top . He has every reason to at least pair and on 5 weeks rest , a decent chance to go forward .
   Mobil\'s last was also a top - actually a paired top and it represents a 4 point improvement on his 2 yo dirt top. He also comes to the race off a shorter layoff of 3 weeks .
   Kabel has been quoted as saying he doubt\'s Wando\'s ability to get the distance . They are by the same sire and in the DRF , Wando\'s distance ability according to Tomlinson is actually higher than Mobil\'s rating . Wando appears to be a more aggressive runner , but I don\'t think he is a need to lead type .
    Wando to win at 3-1 or better .bj

*** Favourite is breaking widest , top weight and is coming off 3 negative #\'s in a row . 2nd choice is coming off 2 negative #\'s and no wins at the distance . Time to swing for the fences .
    3 price horses catch my eye.
Slider - Hard kocking gelding has found new life at 5 . Loves track.
Crafty Shaw - almost upset the applecart in the Clark last year at 42-1 . Working well.
Woodmoon - another hard knocking 5yo gelding has run well this year . Latest was off effort .

At the weights if anyone of these can run close to their tops - they can get a big piece .

I will bet any and all over 15-1 , box them in the exactors - and save with Mineshaft.bj

*** I\'m always hanging around , trying to mine the occasional handicapping nugget. I stay away from the \"sheet war\" stuff now , I\'ve seen it all before . I\'m looking forward to the Spring - as I\'m getting too old for these minus 30 wind chills up here .
I can\'t wait for Saratoga - I only started going a couple of years ago , but I tell you , that track has gotten under my skin . Stay in the short line . bj

*** Thanks . bj

*** An observation regarding your odds model ,  the ranking of the odds it produces (from most likely to least likely winner ) is perhaps more important than the actual odds line it produces .
Your model had Transcendental as the most likely winner , the public had her as the fourth choice - this clear divergence points her out as an obvious overlay .
Her performance yesterday certainly proved the validity of that ranking .
The actual odds however were a bit troubling . Tke odds line of almost 5-1 on Raging Fever seems out of line . I believe a good question every handicapper who uses an odds line , however derived , should ask themselves is - would i stand on the other side of the counter and lay that price on a horse ?
I hope this doesn\'t appear as nit picking Chris , again it is just my observation of yesterday\'s and other races you have posted with your model . You are obviously an intelligent and articulate person who happens to be a highly skilled handicapper .
The mathematics involved in your odds model is well beyond my scope .
I use a rudimentary spread sheet analysis to project a race day TG number based upon recent TG numbers at today\'s surface and distance - adjusting for today\'s weight and projected ground loss . It keeps me from overlooking fast horses .
I thought your observations on Happily Unbridled were very insightful.
Ironically i think sheet players themselves are \"conditioned\" to sometimes outmoded thinking in term of condition analysis .
How else did Charismatic and War Emblen get away at the prices they did ?
According to the NY Times interview , Ernie Dahlman doesn\'t believe in the \"bounce\" , and
he says he is the master of the obvious . Well you don\'t get much more of an obvious play then the last out fastest TG number at the same surface and distance .
I look forward to your future posts . bj