Ask The Experts

Did this guy make a deal with the devil, or what?  How about Medaglia D\'Oro!  Only three weeks in Frankel\'s barn and he goes from having just broken his maiden, with only two lifetime races (both  6f sprints), to winning a G2 race around two turns and taking down Siphonic (although I don\'t think he was fully cranked for this).

Mall, now that you metion it, Nonsuch Bay is intriguing in the Bonnie Miss.  I have reservations about her distance capabilities.  Her sire (Mr. Greeley) and especially her broodmare sire (Light Idea) get better runners going short rather than long.  Alexander is OK, not great, with stretchouts and the running lines from her two races seem to indicate that she would prefer 6f.  If she could stay 9f, she\'s got a good chance, though.

What is the link to this \"Wired\" thing?  The idea of a perfectly \"efficient market\" (i.e., where every horse\'s odds accurately reflect its chances) where all the value is squeezed out is a scary thing.  If that were to happen we would be better off playing roulette or blackjack (lower takes).  Can it happen?  Some think it already is happening, without the help of computers, because all the people who used to throw around silly money at the track betting their lucky numbers and what-not are gone and what\'s left are sharpies like those who frequent this board .  There\'s like a Darwinian natural selection going on that can\'t sustain itself.  I.e., in order to survive in this game you have to be a good handicapper and bettor.  If you\'re not, you won\'t survive (and you have to take up stamp collecting or lawn care as a hobby instead).  So, the bad handicappers take their silly money with them, and the only ones that survive are good handicappers/bettors whose \"good\" betting creates a more and more efficient betting market, making it harder and harder to turn a profit for anybody even themselves.  And now we have to contend with computers too?!  Well, at least there\'s talk of legalizing slots at a track near me....

Well, of course, if your cousin is the trainer...

I must agree with Nunzio here that Repent is overrated.  I think his stablemate, the filly Take Charge Lady, is as good as he is at this point in time.  It would be poetic justice if Tony D\'Amico rode TCL and beat Repent/Bailey and Harlan\'s Holiday/Prado (or whoever).

One handicapping tool I\'ve found somewhat useful is trainers\' comments, as published in articles in the DRF and also on many tracks\' websites, concerning their entrants\' chances going into a race.  For example, before the Las Virgenes, Baffert said something like, \"We haven\'t been working her [Habibti] too hard because she lost weight since her last and hasn\'t been able to put any weight back on\".  These comments are most useful when trying to gage a horse\'s fitness coming off a layoff.  Often I\'ll read things like, \"We wanted to start him in a X distance or Y class race, but there was nothing available, and we had to start somewhere.\"

Will HH finally run down Booklet? (doubt it) Will Booklet go off at > 4-1 again? (doubt it) Who is the newcomer that can make these questions irrelevant?  Nokoma?