Ask The Experts

We often talk about outside posts in 2 turn races and how much of a disadvantage it will be to be caught wide. I am curious if people think it is a negative to be in the 1 or 2 hole in sprint races. I know this might vary a great deal from track to track,  I am more curious about the major circuits(Cal, N.Y.etc.). I am also wondering how people quantify it, or how many lengths it might cost,if any. If you were to think that not being one of fastest horses early was a negative (and on the rail), this would be a situation that would make race shapes very interesting. Basically, do you think being inside lowers your probabilty of winning.

That\'s what I was thinking. I looked through many sheets this week and didn\'t find any that won. I did find a decent amount that finished ITM, which made me question my sample size. But I have just started to really reduce a horse\'s chances in these case\'s. I never really paid attention to this before, then after seeing it mentioned on ROTW I have begun to use it and found it very good info. How do you decide whether or not to give a horse BI or BO? Thanks

There is no reason to worry. I thought I heard Vic talking in terms of numbers yesterday myself, he was mentioning a certain horse running an 8 etc.I immediately felt just like you did, Oh No Vic is going to start giving away our edge. But then he promptly picked the favorite and I knew all was fine.

My point is most people don\'t read the sheets properly, they just learn to pick the fastest horse and never really understand what the sheets should be used for. I\'m not saying Vic doesn\'t know what he is talking about, I don\'t know him and handicapping on T.V. has no upside, but I do know most people still don\'t bet properly. When the pick 4 went to 50 cents at Keeneland, I was also worried, I felt people could play smarter and go deeper. It turns out they don\'t change there betting style at all, they still bet chalk and think hitting the all button is a smart play. Bottom line pools got bigger and payoffs improved. I think this could be a win win, Jerry sells more sheets and people now know who the fastest horse is, that\'s perfect.

I feel the same way about most pick 6 syndicates,just because they think they can buy a ticket,doesn\'t mean they have positive expectancy, let them fire away because those are bad bets and they help build the carryover\'s. I see nothing but opportunity.

Good Luck

Congrats, very imprssive analysis,looks much easier after the fact. Also, I don\'t think I have ever seen you guys use SORE next to a #, how do you come about that and why do I never see it. Jerry, the horse I was trying to think of was Big Red Mountain and he was a half to LMS, not out of,my bad.      

This Polytrack might get interesting, Beyer was only a 90 for Straight Line, find that pretty low. But I also saw it coming, as the 1:22 looked very avg. compared to the other races. Be interesting to see #\'s out of this race, this product may have more value than ever on poly.

That\'s great news!!

Thanks, gutsy performance, been kind of frustrating year, some small injuries and not many places to run in Midwest. The goal all year  has been to get back to the ACK ACK at Churchill, Breeders\'s Cup day. He won that race last year and they upped the purse to 200k. I guess plan is to find one race before that, any ideas?  

I agree with you. I am looking for someone in the second tier to jump up 4 or 5 points and get in the mix. I think Lampoon is ready to explode forward. That is why I was hoping RF didn\'t run as fast as you had her, because now she can still bounce and win. Also would you ever go back and change a number,after a couple months.