Ask The Experts

Canada started common-pool wagering with Santa Anita on Dec 28th .It was originally scheduled for the 26th but Santa Anita officials wanted to hold off , as they didn\'t want to take a chance of screwing up opening day . This may or may not be the cause - but for the lack of any other info just BLAME CANADA . bj

\"I have developed a kind of seat of the pants way of figuring out how fast the track is.\"
That\'s why I pay $25 a pop for the numbers . How can I get one of your damn hats?bj

After handicapping  the card again a couple of other horses at decent M/L odds caught my eye .

7th race - Imperial Alydeed has a real solid line this year - last year his line was a complete zig-zag . Apprentice rider up so gets 5 pounds - could be gone on the engine . Would save in exactors with KR and the 2 entry .

10th race - Autumn Snow gets Bejarano who is sticking around for the ride after the Plate . Powerful Tomlinson turf numbers and nice turf work last week. Nice dirt line this year and nice M/L price . Depending on odds and price on Stag Nation would bet either higher odds horse or both and exactor box.

11th race - Porto Seguro could be sitting on a good one after the last turf race where he had a very wide post and dueled most of the way. His 7F Keeneland number makes him relevant here.

GOOD LUCK to all.

bj

A few thoughts on the Queens\'s Plate card:

4th race - At the weights ITW looks as fast as SF - but I really can\'t see opposing the favourite here . SF is 8 for 9 on the Woodbine turf - only losing to Touch of the Blues in the G1 Atto Mile in 2003 .

5th race - QK hardly looks like a prototypical winner of a NW1 race - but toss the lone turf try and the line looks very solid and fast vs the rest of the field .I write this before seeing the ML - but I wouldn\'t take less than 4-1.

6th race - BOF is the most successful marathon turf horse in the field - likes the course and had a decent 4yo seasonal bow . Should go gate to wire.

7th - A very competetive race . KR penultimate # may be somewhat buried to the public . A 5w effort at 7F May 23 makes him the fastest horse . I believe the horse is a more effective off the pace sprinter than a router . FR is an obvious danger - but will need a helluva a trip from the 14 hole.

9th race - I\'ve got to disagree with HP here - I think the filly is the play .
She is visually impressive and is obviously the fastest horse . her best will win - or even a small backward move still wins . Hopefully she goes off a little better than the ML . Three in the bag looks solid - but the jockey has never seen a 4path trip he didn\'t love - so groundloss is a concern .
Frankel has done nothing up here this year 1for17 - so I\'ll take a stand against WD.

10th race - SN 2yo turf number holds up here as good or better than the field save SS 2yo turf debut .
SS make his seasonal bow - so I believe SN holds the edge . Dirt numbers are ok so he should go well here .

bj

 

Chris ,

Regardless of the outcome , nicely done. bj