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Ask the Experts / Charlestown Race 9!! HOT Tip
« on: April 16, 2011, 08:56:44 PM »
Choragus
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Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW?
« on: April 15, 2011, 02:34:36 PM »
Kind of surprised for this. Silver Timber is arguably in the best shape of his life according to figures and should get wagered down with Chad Brown being en fuego. Add a pretty much live morning line favorite and i do not see any kind of value here.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Charles Town Classic - Holy Crap!
« on: April 15, 2011, 09:44:43 AM »
Tizway. I won\'t even gift wrap it for you. I believe the ROTW should be the Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Uncle Rory...
« on: April 11, 2011, 02:05:19 AM »
looks like Dialed In may be the next: Monarchos?
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Ask the Experts / Re: Oaklawn Cap
« on: April 09, 2011, 05:44:58 PM »
are we looking at the same race? 0_o look at those dirt works compared to poly! this very well may be a new track record for Misremembered!
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Ask the Experts / Re: Machen
« on: February 19, 2011, 01:32:45 PM »
My selection for the race is the grinder Santiva even at high weight. Worktab looks good to me with the 6 to 1 ML odds and I have no confidence in any of the others. GL
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Ask the Experts / Re: Machen
« on: February 18, 2011, 07:20:16 PM »
The big bounce most likely represents the horse running way too fast for his own good first out. How can this last figure be a good sign? The play doesn\'t make sense to me unless the odds are there to take a stab.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Machen
« on: February 16, 2011, 11:46:46 PM »
The horse ran a bounced effort. Fractions and everything you see in the race is included with the bounced figure that you see. When I see this happen I tend to project a horse to run an in between effort at best (somewhere between the bounce and fastest figure) until the horse shows me improvement from his best effort I will not play the horse. There is nothing to indicate that this horse will run a new top especially with the best number being pretty fast. Even if you assumed an O-X-O-X type pattern at best its just not normal with these young horses running that fast so early on. So that projection wouldnt make too much sense to me. Not saying to keep him off tickets because you may have the odds for some kind of play but I don\'t see anything personally to indicate that the horse will run a winning effort against this specific field.
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