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Messages - Holybull

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1
Ask the Experts / Re: Bayern
« on: April 26, 2014, 10:49:30 AM »
The way I understand it is 6 horses have 20 points, and the tiebreaker would be stakes earnings.  Bayern would then get in based on the tiebreaker.  You\'re right, it\'s not logical that he would come back next week, but ya never know.

2
Ask the Experts / Re: DRF?
« on: July 11, 2013, 03:29:20 PM »
I\'m just a lurker on this board.

I enjoy most of your posts, P-Dub.  Especially your love for \"Moneymaker\" Mike Smith.  But to be fair, your tendency to point out bombs you hit after the fact is nothing new.

3
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby odds less than 40-1
« on: May 15, 2013, 04:52:35 PM »
Statistically it takes a smaller amount of money to knock a 50-1 horse down to 40-1 than it does to move a 5-1 horse up to 15-1.

I enter bets for many friends and family members and many of them are WPS bets on the longest shots on the morning line.  TGJB\'s explanation makes perfect sense.

4
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby odds?
« on: April 07, 2013, 09:13:14 PM »
I find it curious that TAP is considering Palace Malice for the Blue Grass and not the Ark Derby on dirt.   Just seems risky.  I don\'t recall TAP running many horses at Oaklawn, ever.

5
Ask the Experts / Re: Aqueduct 6th today
« on: January 20, 2013, 06:26:07 PM »
What?  P-Dub redboarding a bomb?  You don\'t say.

6
Ask the Experts / Re: 10X worse than the Lasix issue!
« on: May 22, 2012, 03:22:21 PM »
Plus healthy rebates on a very low-risk bet.

7
Ask the Experts / Re: 10X worse than the Lasix issue!
« on: May 22, 2012, 12:59:55 PM »
Makes me wish I was a sicko that bet 1-5 shots at Thistledown.  Nice little windfall.

8
Ask the Experts / Re: Not to take anything away from Julie, but..
« on: May 18, 2012, 03:53:28 PM »
I wish Rosie would have been on Disposablepleasure in the 10th.

9
Ask the Experts / Re: Preakness ML
« on: May 09, 2012, 08:42:48 AM »
Creative Cause will certainly be lower priced than Went the Day Well.

DRF doesn\'t have Isn\'t He Clever on the contender\'s list.  He\'d be intruiging if he goes.

10
Ask the Experts / Re: HANSEN
« on: May 07, 2012, 02:16:00 PM »
No dual qualifiers in the superfecta.

11
Ask the Experts / Re: Mark Valeski out per DRF
« on: May 01, 2012, 09:18:13 AM »
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Official announcement to come from the Jones boys
> at 10


Good.  Wasn\'t feeling confident about keying him given Jones\' comments lately

12
Ask the Experts / Re: Given the likely odds, the only East Coast horse that intrigues me
« on: April 30, 2012, 03:29:31 PM »
Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I already don\'t like him in here, but fwiw, he\'s
> not looked great in the mornings.  He ran fast
> early slow late in his work today.

Agree, BUT...I keep thinking back to MJellish\'s post about not reading too much into works.   Tough, tough call.  Jones keeps saying if he gets entered, he\'ll be entered to Win.

13
Ask the Experts / Re: Given the likely odds, the only East Coast horse that intrigues me
« on: April 30, 2012, 12:28:09 PM »
Not sure what to make of Larry Jones\' comments about still being undecided about running Mark Valeski.    He said he\'ll wait until Wednesday\'s gallop.  Standard?  Doesn\'t seem like it.

14
Ask the Experts / Re: Given the likely odds, the only East Coast horse that intrigues me
« on: April 25, 2012, 03:23:26 PM »
Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I suppose TG users are skeptics/price hunters by
> nature, but is it not obvious which horse has the
> best TG sheet?
>
> Hint, he looked like the ghost of Barbaro
> galloping at Keeneland last week.
>
> Or, is the \"no-break-thru first two starts at 3\"
> pattern a negative sign?
>
> For me that\'s the most important read in here.

Thoro-pattern certainly isn\'t negative on him.  If he crushes, 4-1 will look awfully generous in hindsight.   Even if he has the best sheet, everyone likes to look for value.  Really, what else is there to do for the next 10 days?

15
Ask the Experts / Re: Given the likely odds, the only East Coast horse that intrigues me
« on: April 25, 2012, 10:22:04 AM »
HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wouldn\'t try to talk you out of it.  
>
> He had a 9 top as a 2yo, so the 3 may be it.  At a
> glance, I don\'t like the spacing of this year\'s
> campaign, but it\'s a whole new world now.  He will
> face a radically different pace scenario in the
> KDerby vs. the FDerby and that may not cue an
> improvement, and he probably needs to move up here
> to get in the picture.  Finally, I don\'t know what
> to make of Byrne.  
>
> My post is more about trying to find a winner.  He
> just doesn\'t look the part to me compared to some
> of the others.  If he\'s 10-1 because he won the
> FDerby and El Padrino and some of the others are
> faster and 20-1 and up why am I betting on him?
> More inclined to see him underneath at best.  HP

I WANT to be talked out of him and Creative Cause and focus on the other ones you mentioned like El Padrino and Mark Valeski.

TCI ran way better than 9 as a 2YO.  And based on those numbers it seems there is plenty of room to improve, especially at longer distances.  I\'d love to toss him but I can\'t find anything to knock.

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