FL Derby Stakes Pick 4

[FrankD.]

91 and sunny today at the Gulf, why am I not sitting in the Corona Beach House watching Mohaymen get hung out on the first turn this afternoon?

The Orchid:
I have to take a 180 degree difference of opinion from the race of the week in this one. Quiet Kitten is sitting on the X of a classic 0-2-X off a 3 point new top from a sire that doesn\'t improve from 3 on. She is the speed going 3 turns but I\'m seeing her fold up the when the running starts. Photo Call is by another non improving sire from 3 on and is TAP really going to improve a horse from Graham Motion? If you answered yes to the previous question It\'s likely it would have happened first time off the bench from the top producing factory known as PBD.

Both Clement horses have numbers that keep them in the hunt and will be up close to the pace. The unknown is Suffused who with very limited sire data shows a jump at 4 and gets first lasix.

Suffused, Crisolles and Maximova here for me.

The Honey Fox:
Sandiva was going to be a single in here for me but it\'s looking like a fairly form full sequence and day so she will get pressed a few times on my tickets. Celestine likes it here and gets an 8 lbs weight shift from Tammy the Torpedo from their 12/19 heat. A Little Bit Sassy was heading in the correct direction before bouncing in last, her effort against Sandiva off the bench was a good one and the price will be right here.

Sandiva, Celestine and A Little Bit Sassy pressing Sandiva

The Pan American:
The Brownie\'s have been beating the drum on Wake Forest LOUD, they do love to make noise! In case he stumbles I\'ll save with Kaigan and Grand Tito.

Wake Forest gets the lions share of my money in the sequence.


The Florida Derby:
Unfortunately the draw and speed friendly surface decided the match race IMHO.
Mohaymen is at a severe disadvantage here and do they want to empty his tank 5 weeks out?

Some job by PJ Campo to not make this a 5 horse race, where did they get half of this field from for a Grade !???

Nyquist


They should put at least a fresh half a mil into the rainbow today

Good luck,

Frank D.

[johnnym]

Thanks Frank as always enjoy the read..
A warm day for sure hopefully some clouds move in to cool things of a tad.
Like the picks.
Good Luck
JOhn

[FrankD.]

John,

Stop by the Corona Beach House for me and have a cold one in the sun. A nice looking Cuban young lady in short shorts behind the bar and the best race track alcohol value in the country, a bucket of 5 Corona\'s ice cold for $20.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Fairmount1]

Frank,

I will follow through on this cold one in the sun for you. We disagree on P4 a bit though I too will put some dough on Wake more heavily in p4.

Not a blockbuster card as anticipated probably due to Keeneland opening next week.  But the main event should be a good one.  If they run 1-2 today, Mohaymen will be the favorite in Derby due to his outside post.    

A very challenging, difficult card.  A couple of TG figs differ widely from other figs and I will paly the fastest TG fig horse prominently in R2.  In ROTW, I\'ll use 3, 4, and 5 knowing I should follow your advice or not play Gulf Turf stakes.  

Entire sequence:  3,4,5 with 4,5,6,8 with 1,4,7 with 4,7,9.

Come back with a stronger opinion, stronger punch:  3,4,5 with 3,6 with 7 with 4.

Best of Luck.