Any Thought on Navarro at Saratoga?

[Dana666]

Anyone have any insight? Something useful? Navarro has 3 in the Vanderbilt-Use? Toss? Will his \"unique\" training methods prove as effective at Saratoga as other tracks? A T-G stat has him at 4% winners off a top in a stakes race--can that even be right? If so, we\'d want to toss Chublicious the Jersey bred, the fastest horse in the race, right? Delta Bluesman is the speed of the speed--sometimes that speed gets swallowed up at Saratoga though--check out his last replay if you want to see something strange; he was spent then finds a second wind again. If I\'m not being a wise guy wannabe, I\'d probably use #1, #3, #4 in multi-race exotics. #4 A P Indian is the most visually impressive to me, and #1 Anchor Dawn exits the fastest race in history so he must be used. Weaver\'s horse may still have some upside and even All Star Red isn\'t horrible. I don\'t see Holy Boss reversing his off form in 2016 but he does add blinkers. Any thoughts?

[dodie]

Hey Dana,
  My generalization is \"juice doesn\'t travel well.\"  We\'ll get a good indication in the 2nd, where he has the very lukewarm M 3/1L fave, the 5, Cerro.  I dislike betting entries from a gambling standpoint, especially on big days at venues w/ lots of tourist money, but I think the Jacobsen entry is legit, the plain one a bit more.  
  How anyone handicaps the first, third, and fifth races amaze me.  I\'ve got 8 contenders in each, and will hit the all button on those races throughout the early horizontals to try to get a bankroll to attack the p6.  More to follow . . .

[Dana666]

Yeah, definitely some super competitive races today; I hate having to factor in weird things like \"traveling juice\" as you put it, but we have to. Take Doug O\'Neil runners at Del Mar right now, they\'re literally falling down--how the hell am I supposed to factor the falling down factor into my analysis??? With Navarro I think he must be building up horses\' red blood cells some way and that tactic requires rest--the more they run, the more it wears off--he\'s had success in Dubai and just about everywhere else, so it\'s not something that can be tested for I guess. The way his horses finish indicates they have more red blood cells, something like that.  I want to be against all 3 of his runners in the Vanderbilt, but I\'m not sure I have the guts.

[dodie]

Yeah, in just investigating the ship factor with the 4 he has entered today, they have travelled well.  Let the odds board be your guide.  And by that I mean toss out the low odds horses (like Cerro), and pay attention to his price horse in the stake.

[TGJB]

As a general rule, a) trainers know what makes their horses run well, and b) don\'t make horses travel if they don\'t think they will run their race (which doesn\'t mean they are right, but see \"a\"). Sometimes they run horses at Saratoga because their owners want them to. But in this case he has THREE in-- he thinks they will run.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

I wouldn\'t be using anchor down.  5/2 ML, trying a distance he hasn\'t really performed at, against a bunch of fast horses who all relish 6 furlongs.  And a lousy rail draw for a horse not quick enough at 6 furlongs to get the lead.  A toss in all multi race bets for me.

One more try with holy boss as a must use.   Jerkoff ride last time by an aging Johnny V, who doesn\'t ride like he used to.   But the horse should stalk the speed and ran his big number at this track.  If he doesnt run big today, stick a fork in him.

Will also use the obvious AP Indian who ran very well last time, on a part of the track that had been dead all day (very surprised not to see a dead rail designation by TG)

Will have a saver pick-4 on requite.  He looks a tad slow, but is lightly raced and the race flow may benefit him (ton of speed)

Good luck

Jim

[Dana666]

Thanks for the input.

[JoseOcon]

Yeah! One more try with holy boss

And, first try with Destin