Classic Empire Performance

[BitPlayer]

I wonder which way the trainer having several qualified for the race cuts.  Even running a no-hoper potentially gives the trainer more control over the race flow and keeps a potential competitor out of the gate.

[boardedup]

While this wasn\'t \"one for the ages\" CE\'s trip was fairly brutal, then considering everything he had going on coming into this race, the fact that he dug in and did enough to win (when a place or show would have guaranteed him the needed points) to me was pretty impressive.  He also looked good in the paddock and he was in the gate awhile with the three horse thrashing around beside him and he was totally relaxed.  Night and day from his last start appearance wise pre race.

Not sure what the numbers will be but I have to think it was close to pairing up?  I think it was Jim who said this above and I\'d agree, on paper he\'ll likely look much better than the other top choices.  Casse seemed to be a mix between shocked and relieved post race.  He was given the chance to say, he had a ton of confidence in his horse and expected him to perform well...but he didn\'t, not the most encouraging words from a trainer who just got the most over analysed 3 year old in the country to answer the bell in a big way.

I agree he wasn\'t running against the toughest group going, but there was a few that run their race every time, he was wide both turns, totally boxed in for 2/3\'s of the race, major traffic issues, I mean that was an honest effort to win.  Will he handle Churchill? Who knows, but based off of what I saw yesterday, I\'ll be looking for reasons to use him in a few weeks.

[boardedup]

How hot was Kiran yesterday in general?  all his entries showed up loaded, how long will this last for?

[TheBull]

Great comparison MJ.....but if my memory serves, wasn\'t Afleet Alex\'s XX race due to a lung infection that they discovered right after the race, when he scoped so poorly? Not to say that the illness couldn\'t be related to the effects of running big the race before but still......

Only reason I say that is because IWC\'s XX race came while facing adversity, a tough trip and pace pressure, not to mention it was following a big effort. He totally quit half way into the FOY. My worry is, with a full 20 horse field, congestion and that hectic calvary charge that usually happens for the first 3fs of the derby....AND coming off another big effort.....who is to say he won\'t totally fold up shop again if things don\'t go his way early? As likely second or third choice, do you really want to find out?

[Molesap]

I have seen a number of people try to predict the odds for the Kentucky Derby. There are many things that will affect the odds between now and then, but here are my thoughts on the morning line. I think Battaglia often overvalues the favorite in this race and I know from previous comments he likes Classic Empire. I would think he is going to instill him as the favorite at something less than 4/1. Since 3/1 seems a tad low, I look for 7/2. I think Always Dreaming will be about 5/1 and Irish War Cry will be 6/1. Everyone else will be double digits.

[Fairmount1]

I\'ll post something this week with more exact numbers but I certainly believe McCracken will be single digit odds and possibly the third choice.  

Always Dreaming is your fourth choice imo.

[Tavasco]

Look Fairmount1, apparently you are a bit of a...,a... not an introvert and don\'t take me wrong I mean no disrespect of offense. Your opinion is just as good and legit as any other. I believe you believe McCracken should be 3rd choice.

I find it interesting speculating on the factors that will influence the crowd\'s bets on Derby Day. All around the nation regular people not race fans flock to the event. many golf clubs even have Derby Day Tournaments which kick off the links season in the north.

Winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile and The Kentucky Derby one loss and traditional PP\'s with HUGE appeal. 7/2 @ Post time ha!

While TG clientele will push many dead presidents thru their ADW\'s, offshore account or wherever they can, fortunately, they won\'t move the needle so very much. I\'ll defer to TG for an estimate of their affect on the tote.

My point is simple, player and tourists look at the race and contenders from different perspectives. Some  notable example being when Anna Rose Napravnik was riding. She moved the needle. Baffert\'s name moves the needle, even M.C. Hammer and his entourage moved the needle.

McCracken, is a catchy name. but among the players and the subset known as \"Sheet Players\" even only some of them fancy him. Single digit odds based on what? Is he the one that broke the track record at Tampa? Even that won\'t impress my wife and she(s) lives in Tampa, and one in Seattle, and in Miami and Cleveland.

Help, where\'s the remote Joel Osteen just came on late night T.V.

[johnnym]

The Johnny and Tara factor is always good for moving odds.

[big18741]

Agree with Fairmount here.

McCraken was the favorite in the last futures pool and single digit odds in pools 2 and 3.

3 for 3 at Churchill with a trainer entry that\'s won two of these things.

Connections called their shot with the undefeated colt going into his last prep saying they want him to peak on Derby Day and winning the Bluegrass wasn\'t the objective.

One or two really good works at Churchill will move the needle.
You might even hear a reference to the \"Street Sense last work\"

I\'ll be shocked if he isn\'t single digits.

[Tavasco]

OK, I didn\'t know McCracken was so popular in the futures. I don\'t follow the future pools, my ignorance.

I suppose I may be over estimating the \"non player\" bettor motivation. As for those following Johnny & Tara\'s opinions, Johnnym, tell me they aren\'t back again this year.

Plus Mc\'s classic PP\'s page attractive also for those who don\'t sheet. The composition of the final 20 entries will of course be a big factor.

Still somewhat dubious. Obviously interesting speculation.

[Topcat]

johnnym Wrote:
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> The Johnny and Tara factor is always good for
> moving odds.

Or turning stomachs.

[big18741]

McCraken actually has a nice looking sheet.

Two preps,coming in off pairs,never gone backwards,developed only 3 points from his two year old top.All good stuff if you\'re looking for a horse to move forward in the Derby.

He\'s slower than maybe half the field going in and figures to be one of the top four choices.Your move.