Updating 4 point Derby jump up results

[sekrah]

So what\'s the sample size of 5+ tops in the race before Derby?

I went back 5 years and found only 4 that qualified, only one totally X\'d (Tencendur). Medal Count (6.75 top) ran 4 pts off with a \'T tu\', one of the worst trips ever if I remember correctly.  Wicked Strong (7.75 top) also off just 2.25 with a T.

I\'m sure there\'s more if I go further back but basically 1, maybe 2 horses a year have this sort of huge top coming in and it hasn\'t been instant death. Over 20 years? 30 horses? That\'s not a large sample size for a race like this.

[Wrongly]

How about Todd Pletcher trained filly Devil May Care in 2010?

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2010.pdf

[Furious Pete]

Yeah.. She looked unbeatable.

[Wrongly]

I didn\'t say she did but look at her sheet.

[Furious Pete]

Yes. She lost her previous races with 13 lengths and 10 lengths, and then made a monster jump in a race where Pletcher CAN do magic, for owners desperate to get in to the derby. I see she traded at 10/1. I mean, if you guys bet this horse down to 10/1, and it sure sounds like you could have, well you should be selling your house and dog and grandma to bet AD at anything close to that. THIS horse is exactly why AD will be value.

Bottom Line: There is upside to Always Dreaming. That\'s why you can have a bet at a price.

[BitPlayer]

Going further back, I found 18 horses with a new top of 5 or more in their last Derby prep.  None of them had a new top or pair in the Derby.  The best was Ten Most Wanted, who went back 1.25 points.

As TGJB pointed out many posts ago, part of the problem is that Always Dreaming\'s top is not that fast compared to the other horses in the race.  Can he afford to go back a point or two and still win?

Another issue is that much of the data we are looking at relates to the steroids era, where steroids could be used to speed a horse\'s recovery from strenuous effort.

[Wrongly]

I give up.  Best of luck to you and hope you return following the Derby.  T.

[Furious Pete]

No need to give up but if you could chose between betting AD at 7/1, and Devil May Care at 10/1, which is the better bet? If AD had earned those 9\'s by losing with 10 lengths I wouldn\'t even have considered him at 20/1, the reason why I could justify betting him despite his pattern, despite his trainer\'s record in this race, despite his big top leading into the derby is because he has every right to move forward from what he\'s shown us at the course. There is nothing he has done that\'s suggesting he can\'t be a monster. In fact, many things are telling us that he is. Pletcher\'s different approach with him, fastest FL Derby since 1978, he got bet down heavily last time out even though he was up against Gunnevera whom was perhaps the leading derby contender at that point, he\'s been Pletchers favorite all along, we\'ve heard reports telling us he\'s been beating up on all his training mates all along, the jockey ran with incredible confidence in the FL Derby, he didn\'t react at all when he clipped heels in that same race, he has looked stunning in all his wins and noone can say that they probably have raced him too hard, too early. I mean what more could you ever want from a horse that will be at least 5/1, probably even more, in a race where there is not one single horse to love. He could even win this race with a pairing of his last.

It\'s no sure thing, but it certainly isn\'t laughable to go with him either.

I won\'t say another word about AD because it\'s getting pretty silly.

Good luck to everyone.

[TGJB]

Sekrah-- First of all, your original comment about \"chaotic\" was about the Derby as a race in general, and my response about sample size was about that, not the specific pattern. BUT-- there\'s a reason we look at top, pair etc. It gives a much more accurate reading than who wins, especially in a 20 horse field. And the sample size for horses off big jumps/tops is not that small when you go back. And to take it further, it ain\'t so good coming off even smaller jumps, or Pletcher off Florida tops. So yeah, your analysis of other factors could be relevant. But you have a ton of precedent to overcome, and you\'re not getting big odds.

And I seem to remember having this exact conversation with some guy named Covello a couple of years ago (about a horse named Materiality, I think). There were a lot of reasons why that time was different...

Ever have a situation where your buddy is drunk in love with some gal you know is no damn good, and you know there\'s no way to talk him down? Even when the buddy is yourself?

[Airnate012]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Ever have a situation where your buddy is drunk in
> love with some gal you know is no damn good, and
> you know there\'s no way to talk him down? Even
> when the buddy is yourself?

LOL, that\'s the best example I\'ve heard so far!