I think it will change some, especially on the aforementioned Patch. This represents less than $1 million in the mutual pool - it was over $50 million last year, so it has a long time to go still. Patch is 13/1 right now, but less than $50K was bet to win on him. There are five horses lower than him in terms of odds right now. However, the DD pool seems to often be a better predictor of final odds. He has the fourth highest will pay at $1337, which is almost $500 higher than the next highest amount, so no he will not likely stay at 13/1. The five vying for favoritism all are clustered right around the $140-150 will pay mark. Irish War Cry is the lowest at a shade under $140, while McCraken is a little above $160 Always Dreaming, Gunnevera and Classic Empire are in between those three. The next highest payout is Practical Joke at over twice that ($383). That is interesting (and I have a good guess why it is the next the sixth lowest payout) is that Practical Joke is 33/1 - almost three times the odds of Patch, yet almost a third of the price in the Oaks-Derby DD pool. My guess is that those two likely come close to flip-flopping in odds by the time the gate opens. The bottom line is that the early betting is too small a chunk of the pool to reflect the final odds accurately. I think the statement that sentimental players bet early was an excellent observation and could easy be followed by TGenerates bet late.
