Thoro-Pattern

[dsipes]

Question:  HOw much emphasis should one give to the THORO-PATTERN statistics for Breeders Cup entrants???  Thank you.

[RICH]

It all depends on the top to me. For example, look at bolt d\'oro in the juv race. Big 5 point top to that BIG number for a 2 yr old. 25% new top, 25% pair. I don\'t think so, because of that particular top. Now if that last race was a 3, the thoro pattern makes more sense.

[dsipes]

I ask again to all on this site: How important are the Thoro-Pattern stats to your Breeders Cup handicapping?  Historically, have the stats held up?  Thank you in advance.

[TGJB]

It\'s meant for beginners. Once you have used TG for a while you will be able to make your own decisions about all the variables, along the lines Rich discusses.

[SteveB]

If I understand the Thoro-Pattern line correctly, Bolt D\'Oro has a pattern that is based on only 4 comparable patterns in the TG database of which one would have been a new top and one would have been a paired top. In this case the sample size is too small to provide results with any confidence. Is that correct?

[TGJB]

I\'ve got George looking this.

[dsipes]

Not following you.  It\'s my understanding thoro-pattern gives the results of other horses to date (same age, same time period)with the same pattern and gives you the results of their TG fig.  It seems like you\'re saying, Yes tjoro-patteren gives you the stats for similar situations, but I just don\'t believe it in this situation.\"

[TGJB]

You did follow me. Read the intro material for the Thoro-Patterns, and Rich\'s post again.

Just cause someone hits .300 doesn\'t mean they hit .300 in every situation.

[dsipes]

I completely agree with you.  I just want to make sure I understand Thoro-Pattern correctly.  It\'s stats for a particular pattern.  It\'s stats, not certainty.  But if a certain pattern gets 31% top and 36% pair next out, that at least tells me it\'s a strong pattern.  Correct?  If so, all I\'ve inquired about is if Thoro Pattern is also applicable or useful when handicapping upcoming B C races?  Like Rich said, in Bolt Doro\'s situation, the TP stats indicate that particular pattern has resulted in good tops or pairs.

[Bet Twice]

It\'s a very crude pattern read which doesnt take into account the size of the top or x, the spacing of the races, etc...  I wouldn\'t use them for the BC or any other race for that matter, they are for someone who is brand new to the sheets to give them a general sense of positive/negative patterns - key word being general.

[dsipes]

Ok.  Good explanation.  Appreciate the input.

[richiebee]

Not sure if this response is scientific, philosophical, pragmatic, or maybe just
an opinion.

The data from which Thoro-patterns are derived comes from most North American
racetracks -- from Assinobia to Zia. This data incorporates performances of sore,
dirt cheap claimers and the top stakes horses in training; the Thoro-pattern
analysis seems to force one to make the assumption that that cheaper horses and
top notch performers are equally susceptible to \"the bounce\" and that is not an
assumption this horseplayer is ready to make.

I also wonder what the efficacy of pattern analysis will be in a future where most
runners will be making 8-10 starts per year.