I agree that My Lightnin Strike has a competitive number, but it is the only one. All of his other races are at least 5 pts slower. And the competitive figure is a 7 pt new top from his 2 year old year, and its on the dirt.
Can\'t tell if he likes one or the other better yet, his lone turf race was in line with his other early races. So at 15-1 he may be a good bet, but from the sheets I like several others better, for example Animauxselle has the fastest number, in a turf sprint, and has been running on dirt for the last few races, maybe a return to the turf will bring him back, also Kittens Cover just beat his 2 year old top by a point, and may run a new top today, as also may Glossy, who just equaled his two year old top two back, then moved back slightly going long. While the last 2 I have mentioned show slightly slower numbers, these horses seem to me ready for some improvement.
If the horse has no races on turf for example, I look at breeding to see if a surface switch will help or hurt, see what the sire\'s % is with turf or dirt or whatever, but to me its a guessing game. At least if there are a couple of races from the different surface you may be able to gauge how the numbers on the different surfaces were at the time. If the horse is clearly faster, but has never tried the new/different surface, depending on the price I would bet him, just because he is faster.
For me its Kittens Cover, key with Glossy and Animauxselle underneath.
As for your 2nd question, I never look at Beyer figures.
