Drop Downs

[Fairmount1]

As the game is always changing and evolving, I want to hear any intelligent thoughts on how to handle or gamble on major drop downs from Super Trainer types.  

I have always believed the right play is to Toss these horses at very low odds.  Recently, before the examples below, I am starting to think otherwise and curious others\' intelligent thoughts.

Sunday, July 20, 2025.
Saratoga, Race 4.  #6.  Eliminate.  Pletcher, Carmouche, Spendthrift, Repole et al.  $525k purchase, won two back Alw$82kN1X by 1L plus.  4yo Gelding.  In off a N2X 11L defeat for Clm30N3L.  Towered over this dirt field on paper and won for fun.  .75-1. (3-4 odds).

Del Mar, Race 8.  #9.  Nation.  McCarthy (TAP asst at one time), Rispoli, Eclipse Thoroughbreds et al.  $385k purchase, won two back on Turf for MdnClm50k, had two nice dirt efforts in MSW in two races prior to that.  5yo gelding.  In off a 6L defeat in OC50k/SAL50k when not up for a claim.  Towered over this Dirt field for 10kN2L and won for fun.  .80-1.  (4-5 odds).

As part of a group that owned a few horses with a well known trainer in Kentucky, I have heard the past year the comment that \"We can get one race out of them.  So let\'s drop, get the win and hope (s)he gets claimed.\"  

Ok, I understand that line of thinking.  But it seems these are winning more often to me when these were almost always a toss.  TAP wins at over 1/3 of the time first time for a tag with a positive ROI in 60 starts the last 5 years at Saratoga.  

Is this about getting wins for the big time owners at the premier summer meets?  Is this about unloading a horse but yet dropping far enough to ensure a win?  Both of these would have been claimed for more than the amount they were dropped in for?  Both were claimed as you would assume (that\'s crazy to me also b/c I don\'t even want to wager on these much less can\'t imagine claiming these two).  Is this about increased vet oversight and/or HISA oversight to unload these types?  

I don\'t have the answers.  But from a gambling standpoint, I\'m really trying to think through how to handle these situations b/c it really is a SINGLE or TOSS situation and the more I Toss these lately, the more I shake my head and say apparently this isn\'t the right play.

[Silver Charm]

If you see Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables on the drop at Saratoga they are trying to win. They are trying for an Owners Title. If you see the same outfit making a big drop in, say Nov-Feb run. The runner is worthless.

Pletcher, I always felt like he had a pretty idea what he had, so when he dropped, it was at the right level. Brown, in the first example, is the same thing. They ride an Ortiz and a Saez, and this adds up to like 6/5. In a race or level where he will be very competitive but not towering over thw field. Is this a good bet? Well, if he wins, it is.

I think with purses being as large as they have become in Kentucky and New York, the Trainers people are trying to win. Find the right level. If the runner is 3 or 4YO you need to be skeptical. If he is 6 or 7 and drops to Allowance conditions for $62,500 they want to win but also have no where else to go. And if they lose him well he is 6 or 7.

Some of this is case by case. Small barns dont want to lose horses. They drop more slowly. Big Barns have tons of places to send these horses if just to train. But then there will be 2YO coming in and only so much barn manpower to handle it. Horses gotta go. So if you see Pletcher and Repole in for $50K with a $500,000 Curlin chances are he is a rat. Ortiz will be up. He will be 6/5 and your guess is as good as mine on how to play it.  

Hope it helped

[TGJB]

Two additional variables.

1- most owners who have horses with the big guys have screw you money, and want to get their picture taken at the boutique meets.

2- voided claims have changed the poker game somewhat.

[johnnym]

Pletcher Repole dropped one down (Adventurist) Friday to a 20K claimer.  
A Curlin colt they paid 500K for. Won for fun got claimed by Rice.

[Tavasco]

Bonus depreciation: Allows for a significant percentage of the purchase price to be deducted in the first year the asset is placed in service.

    In 2024, the bonus depreciation percentage is 60%. This will decrease by 20% each year until it reaches 0% after 2026, according to Dean Dorton.

[mistermoose]

That is actually not the case. The new Trump bill calls for 100% bonus
depreciation on yearlings which is big for owners buying a lot of
yearlings and able to expense it right away. I think it also will increase
sale prices for breeders with this provision in place. A friend of mine
Shawn Smeallie is a horse industry advocate that pushed this thru. This
is retroactive to January 2025.

[mistermoose]

On subject of drop downs at least for Saratoga I would echo what Silver
is saying. If the owner is Klaravich, Dubb and often times Repole they
are looking to win for owners title. We claimed one from Repole in
2017, and the horse was very sound just not a stakes horse. He went
on to win almost 500K although was claimed from us a year later.