Posts 13 and 14 On Turf at Delmar Are

[Silver Charm]

28-0-3-0 over the last 10 years. Not a huge sample size for 10 years but....

O\'Brien has two odds on runners parked out there on Friday and no Ryan Moore to steer them home. A guy who has negotiated more than a few miracle trips in Breeders Cup Turf races.

[Silver Charm]

Horses who made a (any) start KYDownsRacing the same calendar year as the Breeders Cup are 0-for-125 in the Breeders\' Cup going back to 2001.

Numbers aside the grass racing there is bizarre. Hexagon shaped course. One year the grass looks like US Open rough. The next year its all speed rock hard firm

[Fairmount1]

Silver,

Hate to quibble but just to clarify that stat is when the 13 or the 14 is the OUTSIDE Post of the race.  Not sure if the 13 has ever won in 14 horse field but if a scratch or two happens on Friday in either race, Post 12 in 12 horse fields is 114-10-6-7 with Henri Matties winning last year from the outside post 12 (number 13 in wagering) at 7-2.  Mattiese was 2FT about 8L behind through FT; 3BS; mET; 4mT; 5EStr; 6Str and best to win.  I am not certain if he was post \"13\" in that the 1 was left empty??  But others can confirm that from the replay.  Regardless, I don\'t believe 13 and 14 are a death sentence for these two.    

I\'m not saying Precise and Gstaad win but I don\'t see it as awful as others.  

I like Balantina quite a bit in the Juvy Fillies Turf besides Precise.  Precise with a decent trip can blow their doors off in the Stretch if she can save just a bit of ground in FT.  I\'ll have an ex box and a tri with those 2 in it.

I\'m against Gstaad as a grinder type, big colt.  He can win but I don\'t believe he towers over the field like others.  I\'ll be playing Street Beast and Gordon Pass to get the job done.  Street Beast would end that Ky Downs drought if he were to win.  I can\'t guarantee a Ky Downs horse wins but the competition there is so good now that I\'ll be shocked if they don\'t have a solid impact in at least place/show spots this year and maybe a few wins also.  
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I did some Touch of Destiny studying for those interested.  All of his replays are available on TwinSpires at least; his works are out there on 1st Racing.  Two of his works were with Journalism but don\'t think he was cranked in those.  I think he is up against it in the win spot is long story short as an AUGUST 3yo from URU but I would recommend looking at his replays and works yourselves to make your own decision.

Likely my last post until after BC to the relief of some in these parts likely haha.  Good Luck to all.  I want to hear about some big winners on the weekend.

[Silver Charm]

Money Post. Good Luck.

Mystik Dan has a chance to join some select and elite Company as a Derby Winner who also won a Breeders Cup race. Starting with Ferdinand, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Unbridled, American Pharoah, Authentic, Nyquist and Street Sense.

Silver Charm couldnt get it done. Winning Colors couldn\'t get it done. Both just missed. It a tough double no matter how you want to go about it. And most Derby Winners never made it back or took the chance. Just look at Sovereignty. Mystik Dan drew well, is live and is going to fire. Breeders Cup Weekend is where Legends are made. The Trophy Room always has shelf space for a few more.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Silver,

I know stats can be useful. I have never embraced them, but know they have a place in the equation.

I also don\'t have a great memory, and am too lazy to do research. But didn\'t Six Perfections and Karakontie win from post 13? Must have been elsewhere, but still.......

I\'m not speaking to the chances of anyone specific running this weekend.

[Silver Charm]

Santa Anita I believe for Pick Six (sic). As to Fairmounts point if there is a scratch then the 13 moves in one spot and post 12 statistically is not had.

OBrien may be ahooting with a Howitzer and the others a slingshot rubber bands However DelMar has a very short stretch on that Turf Course. This isnt Newmarket or Goodwood. If you are 3 wide the whole trip or coming from dead last in a 14 horse field and 330 yards to get the job done at 6-5....maybe ALL-Single is a better way to go. Or toss and hope for train wreck traffic. (Dont want anyone hurt).

[johnnym]

Was aware of that stat last year bet against cogburn

This year a euro Wimbledon Hawkeye a 3 years old first time on firm turf and runs big new top
Juicy odds. Tempting

[Socalman3]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Horses who made a (any) start KYDownsRacing the
> same calendar year as the Breeders Cup are
> 0-for-125 in the Breeders\' Cup going back to 2001.
>
>
> Numbers aside the grass racing there is bizarre.
> Hexagon shaped course. One year the grass looks
> like US Open rough. The next year its all speed
> rock hard firm

I would only say the following - the real issue is not just tossing all those automatically.  The issue is a question of price.  In these situations I ask myself - what price is right for a horse breaking this streak.  If they are giving me juicy enough odds - then I like to bet into this stat because the horse doesn\'t know the statistic and if the one that breaks the streak is suitably overlooked the price will be ridiculously juicy because of people tossing the horse without thinking about it.

One way to look at this is - look at the horse - if it comes in will you feel like an idiot for tossing it?  That is the metric I use.  Somebody gave the example of Cogburn. I would have had no problem tossing Cogburn even if he had beat me. You only have to hit bets against a horse like Cogburn a few times, not every time and not most times. The thing that really stinks is when you toss a 70-1 shot that otherwise figured and it is the one that bites you in the a$$. That is when you feel like an idiot. Sometimes in cases like this, I get idiot insurance and just put a few shekels across the board on the horse.  That way if it comes in you dont feel like a total idiot. But I only get idiot insurance when the odds are so so long.

[billk5300s]

Nice call on Balantina!  I hope you hit that one hard at the window!

[Silver Charm]

Tremendous call.