Hollywood Futurity

[Michael D.]

class,
well, i\'m in on declan (after just one race). i will put up a list, as silver charm did. i do it every year. the last two have not been all that great, to say the least.

Michael,

Most years, I have no opinion at all at this stage because most of the horses that have shown any promise are not likely to be 10F horses. I don\'t think that was as true many years ago.

If I gave an opinion now it would be no better than throwing a dart at a list  of horses with a good pedigree, from a decent barn, that perhaps showed a little bit more promise in the early routes vs sprints (maybe a debut at a route).

I\'ll form some opinions very quickly as soon as the very earliest 2005 route preps are run.

I\'ve been one of the more anti-Declan voices, but I really don\'t have any major problems with him. It\'s just when you move to the top of division and everyone can see your pluses, I immediately start looking for flaws because I want to cash some bets. He looks vulnerable to me.

[TGJB]

Fellas-- look at the last 10 or so Derby winners, and where they were at this point in their careers. Even SJ-- who tipped his hand earlier than most-- was still pretty much a Philly Park horse (one inner track win, I think).

On TVG yesterday, Lyons and Bray were asked, \"is there such a thing as a good bet at 50-1 in the future book right now\". Answer from both-- they would want 50-1 on a horse STARTING in the Derby from here.

I\'m with them. Nothing wrong with making lists-- it\'s that time of year-- but the ones doing well in big races to this point are seldom the ones making noise in May.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

And the following from a man that in all likelihood has some of the most discerning future bets placed or about to be placed.
Be honest Jerry, you needn\'t tell us who, but: \"Do you have any futures...YET\"?...lol

TGJB wrote:

> Fellas-- look at the last 10 or so Derby winners, and where
> they were at this point in their careers. Even SJ-- who tipped
> his hand earlier than most-- was still pretty much a Philly
> Park horse (one inner track win, I think).
>
> On TVG yesterday, Lyons and Bray were asked, \"is there such a
> thing as a good bet at 50-1 in the future book right now\".
> Answer from both-- they would want 50-1 on a horse STARTING in
> the Derby from here.
>
> I\'m with them. Nothing wrong with making lists-- it\'s that time
> of year-- but the ones doing well in big races to this point
> are seldom the ones making noise in May.
>
>



Post Edited (12-21-04 02:17)

[TGJB]

CTC-- I wouldn\'t go into futures this early unless I was getting REALLY big odds, and nobody is willing to risk taking that kind of hit. In general, it\'s getting tougher and tougher to get future bets down. The parimutuel pool is okay, but your options are limited.

[xichibanx]

Top 5 out of those that I have seen..

1. Rockport Harbor- Huge race last out but the injury during the race may cause him problems in getting to Kentucky.

2. Fusachi Samurai- Impressive first out, a good fit for Drysdale.

3. Wilko
4. Galloping Grocer
5. Better than Bonds

However I couldn\'t tell you who I would play in the Future Book pool 1 in a few months.

Best Wishes,

xichibanx