DRF Expo

Thanks. I didn\'t even realize that. I\'m the moron on this one. That figure is on your point scale, correct? I always looked at the  2w, 3w, 5w etc... comments on the same line. I can\'t believe I\'ve been looking at these sheets for so long and was using them so inefficiently for something I consider so important. Again, I\'m the idiot.

[TGJB]

Whoa, slow down, you\'re clearly not an idiot. I am talking about the \"2w\" etc.-- it means two wide, and refers to paths, not points.

Going home now, further discussion tomorrow.

CTC,

>I don\'t think Beyer tells you that<

He doesn\'t tell you a lot of things. :-)

I started out as a Beyer guy. So I\'ve read all his books and articles (in the Washington Post) for many years. I think I have a feel for his style and how he uses his figures. My own style is similar. I\'m just more \"quality of field\" oriented because I think no figures are perfect and think figures earned against tougher competition are better than those earned against weak comp. I also believe that numeric pace figures can help clarify visual uncertainties.

OK. Then I\'m not an idiot. I feel better. We can talk tomorrow. :-)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> because I think no figures are perfect and think figures earned
> against tougher competition are better than those earned
> against weak comp.

I do too, odds excepted. Who is gonna argue with a claiming 2 vs a stakes 2 when teh claiming 2 is 12-1.

[ronwar]

CH

For what its worth, the way I use TG in regards to ground lost, is I sometimes times cut a race loose.  For instance, if TG has a horse running 11, 10.5, 12, 6, 11, 10 and I see besides the 6 a notation of 3W5W, I\'m inclined to not give the 6 as much credit. Otherwise I trust the figure without question.

ronwar,

That\'s very interesting because I do similar things on occasion (sometimes with pace figures too) but I never feel comfortable about it. It just seems to work. Thanks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

ronwar wrote:

> CH
>
> For what its worth, the way I use TG in regards to ground lost,
> is I sometimes times cut a race loose.  For instance, if TG has
> a horse running 11, 10.5, 12, 6, 11, 10 and I see besides the 6
> a notation of 3W5W, I\'m inclined to not give the 6 as much
> credit. Otherwise I trust the figure without question.

Thats very interesting Ronwar. I don\'t think I\'ve attempted to discern a path track bias with figures before, but in the illustration you gave, you certainly could interpret the wide 6 as perhaps bias aided. Perhaps even corroborrate it if TGraph makes a notation of suspected wide help.

I guess i\'ve discounted rail rides where i knew the rail was golden. Thats the same thing in a way. And I\'ve discounted poor efforts on bad rails too. Bird\'s Turfway race was one like that in my opinion. But you\'re talking initial bias determination.



Post Edited (01-04-05 10:20)

[beyerguy]

\"Which tracks do you suspect that Beyer is screwing up?\"

I\'ll name a couple:

Too fast:  Delaware, Mountaineer, Aqueduct Inner

Too slow:  Meadowlands

Thanks. I know he makes subjective errors from time to time when a figure is a little suspect one way or the other and he doesn\'t know whether to break it out or not. However, I thought his computerized system for checking the figures of shippers would keep the major tracks in sync. From what I understand from friends at the DRForm, he\'s got a very good process.

[beyerguy]

Some of it probably involves the levels of legal medication allowed.  I\'m pretty sure Mountaineer is very liberal, and their shippers do well at similar tracks, and horribly, for example, in New York.

I probably shouldn\'t have made a blanket \"too high, too low\" statement, as it also depends on where the horses ship.  I\'m not sure how to go about measuring this either.



Post Edited (01-05-05 12:37)

beyerguy,

>it also depends on where the horses ship.<

I see your point. I never really gave that much thought, but it\'s probably worth it.  

I\'ve looked at so many sets of figures at times I am so used to discrepancies (even when adjusted for methodology) that I don\'t take the small differences in figures too seriously.  

I look at the figures and sort of say, \"he\'s been running somewhere between and \"x\" and \"y\" - which is usually a length or two one way or the other.

The occasional big differences are what really perks me up - like Smarty Jones\'s pre Derby figures that Beyer got wrong. (which he sort of admitted to in an online chat at the DRF) I think he called one of the figures \"conservative\" after Samrty won the Derby and Preakness. :-)