Sunriver; Keeneland

[jbelfior]

BitPlayer---


Yes, you have a good memory. In years past (I know some may argue things have changed), the ability of a 2yo to run a strong 7f/mile (or preferrably both), translated well into their ability to handle a 1 1/4 as a young 3yo.

SEA HERO, GO FOR GIN, UNBRIDLED, FUNNY CIDE come to mind.

Yes, I know what you\'re thinking. BG CAT. Difference here is most of the others showed progression in their numbers as 3yos and none of them ran 4th by 21 lengths in their final prep. Even if you hate Keenland, show some life.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Miff-- the argument is not about whether CD is faster on those days than it is on the other days that week, which I would have to look up for each year to see.

But you still don\'t grasp how the figures are made. When I first get the day, the whole thing has already been adjusted for a rough track speed based on the figure histories of the horses, similar to using pars (variants), but just as a starting point. I\'m just correcting from there-- most of the time I only look at my corrections from that \"par\", and don\'t even pay attention to what the actual track speed is.

Point being-- we do the figures the same way, no matter whether the horses are GI or 5 claimers-- based on the histories of the horses. All the stuff you say about assigning figures based on preconceptions is totally wrong.

[jbelfior]

TGJB---

From looking at your graphs for all of the Derby winners and the ones that ran well or better than expected, PROUD CITIZEN is a real head scratcher to me. Certainly not as much as CLOSING ARGUMENT, however. That could be attributed to a McLaughlin \"jump up.\"

Your thoughts on the young 3yo who breaks through to a new top off of a 6 week layoff (but not a huge jump from his 2yo top), regresses slightly in his pre-Derby prep, and goes into the Derby off of a 3 prep schedule?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[tmcdevitt]

And the likely cause of these amazing jumpups, in your opinion?  

[TGJB]

Joe-- see below for Proud Citizen. See the seminar next week for discussions of patterns, number of starts, etc.

But Closing Argument and VG do have some things in common...

[magicnight]

two 3YO preps?

[TGJB]

tmc-- Clean Living.

[TGJB]

Magic-- yup, and Proud Citizen as well. The idea that 2 preps doesn\'t work because VG and PC drew post 100, or because Giacomo chose the same day to jump 4 points, is ridiculous.

[magicnight]

Ha ha. Reminds me of Allie Reynolds\'s explanation for his success as a major league pitcher ... \"clean living and a fast outfield\".

[BitPlayer]

I\'ve only got what\'s in the archive, and there\'s not much data to go on.  The only two X\'s in the Blue Grass were Ten Cents A Shine (who came back to run a new top in the Derby) and Hal\'s Hope (who X\'d even worse in the Derby).  I\'m finding ten \"Off\" races in the Blue Grass, with two horses getting back to their tops in the Derby (Invisible Ink and AP Valentine), five running \"Off\" races (Action This Day, Limehouse, Cape Town, Pulpit, and Harlan\'s Holiday), and three X\'s (Offlee Wild, High Yield and Sun King).  The median performance of these twelve horses in the Derby was 2.75 points off their Tops.

For the 22 others, I find:

3 Tops (14%)
5 Pairs (23%)
4 Off (18%)
10 \"X\" (45%)

with a median performance in the Derby 2.5 points off their Tops.

[tmcdevitt]

Thanks

[BitPlayer]

Joe B. -

After this morning\'s work by Bluegrass Cat, I\'m thinking you may be right.

Someone else posted the suggestion that Pletcher might scratch the Cat if that would allow Sunriver to get in.  I was skeptical because the ownership is different, but with Winstar having bought an interest in another Derby horse (Sharp Humor) and Angel being on Sunriver instead of Bluegrass Cat this morn, and no rider having been named for the Cat (although Dominguez has been mentioned), that may be in the cards.