ROTW

[spa]

Enough nonsense, let\'s pick a winner. Last year, I never hooked up Smarty in the big money. It\'s possible the trend may continue. In the Rebel, Alex looks tough but what about the bottom horse for second. When Alex galloped out the extra eighth, I couldn\'t tell who was more tired- the horse or the rider.

[twoshoes]

Why not the bottom horse on top? He came back to his 2yo top in his 3yo debut under less than optimal conditons and if he\'s a serious horse (in my opinion he is)should break through today. Afleet Alex is eligible to back up off his last (new top; short rest) and Rockport ostensibly isn\'t primed for this and even if he is a return to his top may not fill the exacta. Short field though and likely not a lot of value.

[jimbo66]

Alex figures awfully short.  I thought maybe he would be 4-5 and Rockport 7-5, but that probably won\'t be the case.  In \"matchup\" odds, Alex is -265 vs Rockport.  Hard to believe I can get 5-2 on Rockport to beat Afleet Alex, when I thought he would be 7-5 to win the race.

Two weeks rest after a negative number/new top. I also don\'t think he is at his best going two turns (what a revelation, I am only the 4,000,000th person to notice that).  Plus, Rocky figures alone on the lead, although I think Johnny V. will stay within a length or so.

I think Rockport is the bet at the odds.  

But not the best betting race this weekend, there are others better.

Hi Jimbo,

I\'m going to pass on that one. I think AA is a more probable winner than RH, but they will bet it that way. I would have a tough time taking RH at a short price when he\'s been so iffy to even get to this race because of the problems and setbacks he\'s had training. If he does come back sharp and gets loose in a slow pace though, he will be tough. I think this is a race to watch.

[jimbo66]

CH,

You are probably right.  I am a \"sucker\" for \"big races\" and usually find a reason to bet them.  But I do believe that 5-2 in a short field is not necessarily too short a price.  I am just hoping that the health issue is gone and that Servis wouldn\'t rush him back if the horse was not right.  

Talk about a tough race, what does anybody think of the San Felipe?  I believe it will be a great betting race.  I am not sure who will be the favorite.  The site I bet at now has Don\'t Get Mad at  13-1 in the Derby futures (ridiculous) and Golden Shine at 18-1 (also very very short).  I thought Giacomo at a price would be the play after the nightmare trip Mike Smith gave him last time.  However, they made him 5-2 on the morning line.  Although I have strong doubts he goes off the favorite.  Roman Ruler?  Who the hell knows what this horse will do, even if he runs.  Lucky JH and In Excelsis look too slow.  Don\'t Get Mad ran a \"7\" last time, but had a \"4\" last year and figures to benefit from the two turns, being a son of Stephen Got Even (sired by AP Indy).  I don\'t like Wilko, which probably makes him the play.  Dollase is 1 for 26 at the meet, but is a ridiculous 40 percent off of this kind of layoff. Consolidator should run better this time and might get a nice trip off the speed.  At the right price, I might consider him on the rebound (8-1 or so).

Pace scenario in this race?  Lucky JH on the lead, Roman Ruler/Golden Shine/Consolidator all stalking?  Could be swift, setting it up for Giacomo, assuming Smith doesn\'t take a tour of the track with the horse......

Thoughts?

[Michael D.]

jim,
great betting race, i will post later. looks like DGM, Gia, and Con around 6-1, and RR and Wil around 3-1. in my opinion, it is very unlikely we have any serious derby contenders here.

[miff]

Jimbo,

A little info. The last race for Don\'t Get Mad was supposedly against a severe speed bias. I watched the replay of the race and he was flying late, saving ground along the inside.

Giacomo put in a hugh effort very wide(what else does \"wide\" Mikey Smith do) in a pretty fast race.

Golden Shine won with great authority, Hoffman loves him.Good luck, good betting race.

[Michael D.]

speaking of the ROTW -  watching the OTB channel here, they just showed the easy goer gotham win in 1:32.2 (running four wide under a hand ride no less). if you don\'t get goose bumps watching that one you ain\'t human.

[xichibanx]

My thoughts:

ROTW-Gotham #9 Pavo looks alittle rough but I can find reasons to go against most of the logical stuff.

San Felipe-#8 Consolidator was washed out last time in the post parade when I don\'t think it was that hot in CA.  May step up for Lukas, but this race is super tough I can see going 5 ways in here.

Rebel-Afleet Alex but I think this is super tough also.  I have never been able to get into Greater Good, and Rockport Harbor I can see as the price will be better but he has had alot of problems and I can\'t see Servis squeezing the orange dry as this really isn\'t the goal.

Tb Derby- I\'ll take Mighty Mecke to upset.  Looked nice in his debut and should be value.

xichibanx

xichibanx

[Michael D.]

xi,
mighty out of the TB derby...... i can\'t come up with anything in those TB races.

[Michael D.]

i\'m starting to like high fly more and more, due to nothing more than attrition. RH gets somewhat of a pass because of the trouble, but i don\'t think he\'s running a fast 10f anytime soon.

jim,
nice call on AA. hope you took the head-to-head action.

[Michael D.]

at 35-1, you have to give lucky jh a shot in the san felipe here. loves the mud, should get the rail, and only needs to improve a bit to hit the board. LJH across the board.

[jimbo66]

Thanks Michael.  

Yes, taking 5-2 Rocky to beat Alex, was better than taking 8-5 to win the race and coming second!

I am thinking Roman Ruler will run big, but I am biased because I have him at 32-1 in the futures

[Michael D.]

given a speedball track, consolidator is the real deal. don\'t know why i ignored him at 7-1. this is the worst bunch of sorry speedballs i have ever seen at this stage of the derby hunt.