Fig for Don Six at Laurel - Carter Handicap

[jimbo66]

JB,

How comfortable are you with the figure you gave Don Six in the race at Laurel where he got nosed out by Saratoga County.  Saratoga County came back and dusted Pico Central in the Dubai race, which would seem to flatter Don Six\'s race at Laurel.  I noticed that you had Don Six\'s figure dropping three points in that race, off his top in the Aqueduct race right before that.  Just wondering if this is one of those you feel is \"rock solid\" or if this one was more questionable.

The followup to that is that the Carter is a very interesting race, for a 6 horse field.  Looks like Beyer has Forest Danger\'s last race faster than T-Graph.  Medallist seems to have a nice pattern, pairing up his top.  But \"healthy pattern\" seems to be an oxymoron when referring to a horse that bears out as often as Medallist does.  Don Six has the best top and although I did think he was vulnerable at Laurel at 7 furlongs, his race against Saratoga County does not look so bad now.  He has come back and worked 44.3 \"breezing\".  I normally don\'t pay much attention to workouts, as some trainer last year at the Derby said \"Fast horses work fast\".  But 44.3 breezing is a very sharp workout.  I don\'t want to start a pace discussion again, but I think Don Six might be quicker than Forest Danger and Medallist and I suspect there is some chance that Forest Danger and MEdallist won\'t run their best races without the lead.  Mass Media and Unforgettable Max might be interesting underneath Don Six, trying to get a little value in the exactas.  Mass Media has the second best top, but has been miserable in three races at Santa Anita since then.  I don\'t know about believing that the horse \"just didn\'t like Santa ANita\" as FRankel said, but at a price, I might buy into it.  Unforgettable Max was the horse that everybody on this board seemed to love in the Laurel race.  He ran wide and never contended, but did get a decent figure.  With the rail draw and getting weight, he is probabaly a contender and value in the exacta for sure.  You have to like the jockey change to Victor Espinoza as well, it certainly can\'t hurt.

I guess Forest Danger goes favorite, with Medallist second choice.  If so, I like a win bet on Don Six at 5-2 or so, and exactas over MAss MEdia and Unforgettable Max, reversing for less.

Thoughts?

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- here is the Gen George (Feb race, some have run since). As you will see it\'s tough to make it faster-- only other possible approach has G&B pairing, but 3 older horses running significant new lifetime tops in the same race, while this approach has the 3 horses pairing their tops (one off by 1/2 point), and G&B running the race he runs most often. Also note SC won in Dubai while going back, and I had to be pretty creative to give him that good a figure.


http://www.thorograph.com/hold/ggeorge05.pdf

[jimbo66]

Thanks JB.

Interesting that the Dubai race was that slow.  Pico Central must be really off form.

Jim

[miff]

The Dubai race was longer than 6f, I heard.Did anyone hear this. Maybe this accounts for the best sprinters around going in 11(I think)

[beyerguy]

The race was at 1200 meters, which equates to 5.9651634455 furlongs.  Did you hear the 1200 meters wasn\'t accurate?

[miff]

Beyerguy,

I checked my notes.The race was \"about\" six furlongs. You have confirmed it to be marginally \"less\" than 6f.

Interesting with the entire race on a straightaway, that this calibre of horses could run so slow(raw time)

[TGJB]

I posted some brief comments about that Dubai sprint before. On top of the track being very slow that night in general (R&M went 2:02 and change in the World Cup), possible reasons for the slow time in the sprint include a short run-up or a stiff wind in their face-- with the race run down a straight there is no part of the race where the wind offsets, as here. Three quarters of a mile with or against a decent wind could easily make a difference of a second, and we don\'t get wind or run-ups from Dubai.

Yet.

[P.Eckhart]

200 metre sectional times for all UAE racing can be seen at emiratesracing.com

As for wind on cup night you can see some flagpoles behind Roses In May here lol

http://www.comeracinguae.com/dwc2005/images/seventh/DSC00107.JPG

[miff]

JB,

Could the race be timed from the gate i.e. no run up? That would definitely slow the raw time but by how much,who knows.

[TGJB]

Miff-- It\'s possible, but in the end it doesn\'t matter. There is only one sprint on the card, and you have to do it by the horses who ran in that race alone. This is even more true given the lack of wind info, which means there is no way to compare it to the routes, even if you had established the sprint route relationship.

Brief aside-- you\'ll be interested to know that, based on Friedman\'s analysis of the Ill. Derby, they had KCB running even better than we did in the La. Derby-- pairing his 2yo top.

Also-- I haven\'t got time to deal with it today, but in all seriousness, Friedman\'s post defending fractional accuracy of their figures might be the single biggest bunch of hooey ever to come from that source, and that\'s saying a lot. I might get involved in this again before the weekend is over pending time constraints, although I really am trying not to spend a lot of time on those guys. You know, I seem to remember someone who now posts there discussing before why that degree of accuracy isn\'t possible-- I\'m sure his intellectual honesty will cause him to speak up.

Meanwhile, aside from the issues I raised in the \"Not For Nuthin\'\" string, everybody should read Friedman\'s nonsense (\'Re re re re Florida Derby\"), to see if they can find 5 or 10 logical fallacies. Brother.

[Michael D.]

you can\'t compare the dubai sprint to 6f US races; apples & oranges completely - sand vs dirt, night vs day, turn vs no turn.... forest danger has any amount of speed you ask. his dam once held the 2f world record i think (yes, 2f). if they want :20 flat they could get it. as beyer (the one here) says though, it\' a matter of intent. DS will have the lead because they most likely want it most, but FD and Med will be right there. don\'t forget too - mass madia won a grade 3 here at aqu going 7f. he was right on a :44 pace that day. in his next two 7f races, they rated him a bit and he faultered. what\'s frankel going to tell castellano - rate? don\'t think so. he won\'t be far off..... post later.

[miff]

Unimaginable to me(ground loss or not) that KCB matched his tyr top. I\'m having difficulty with your pairing,JB, his top seems to be an outright error IMO and I would love to bet on it if there was a way to prove it.