The Rail Bluegrass Day

[Sandreadis]

Was there really an outside bias at Keeneland as the \"gurus\" have suggested? I bet Gators n Bears in the Commenwealth BC in the race preceding the BG.He was 6th choice in a 6 horse race at 9-1 odds. He skimmed the rail the entire way only to lose by less than a length to Clock Stopper.
This may make Bandini\'s wide trip all the more impressive.
Check out the race replay at Keeneland.com,race #8 on 4/16.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll review the race again, but I think Gators was about 2 wide. If a legitimate anti inside bias existed you have to discount Bandini\'s effort.

I don\'t hold being wide against Bandini just because the rail on BG day was suspect. I would view it from the other direction. I would upgrade the performances of the horses that ran on the rail.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Both the winner Clockstopper and Cajun Beat have both been retired after thatrace due to injury -if that tells you anything how the track was playing. Naybe it was coincidence, maybe theyt track was just not right that day.

It was a very weird handicapping day. Ask TGJB he was there that day too.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> I don\'t hold being wide against Bandini just because the rail
> on BG day was suspect. I would view it from the other
> direction. I would upgrade the performances of the horses that
> ran on the rail.

If you believed that the Bandini\'s number was factored on High Limit pairing in the Bluegrass (1) and that the inside was negatively biased and knowing that Frankels come out running and tend to remain in their form/figure niche, is it logical to upgrade High limits number to say a Zed or negative 1?

Assume you believe the large Bandini number is factored on High Limit, wouldn\'t it make more sense to downgrade Bandini\'s number to reflect more accurately the relative performances of the two horses based on High Limit pairing? In other words isn\'t Bandini gettin a figure windfall if its calculated upon High Limits tough path? (Keep in mind High Limit ran on the rail in the stretch and jumped shadows too.)

Bandini may have run a negative 3.1 He certainly ran a good race. Do you think it possible he could have run slower than that bias factored? (T Graph is going to indicate a rail issue for the day.) Theres other horses in the race. Closing Arguement, coming off an injury layoff who ran inside a good way. Sun King, trying 8 marks for the first time who lost ground in the stretch to Bandini and only picked up about half a length vs. High Limit. Mr. Sword with a big inside move flattening out and collapsing upon the rail. Consolidator perhaps doing the first bit of sesamoid damage. If you added a point or two to everyone (perhaps excepting High Limit, Spanish Chestnut and Mr. Sword) does it become a completely unreasonable result?

[NoCarolinaTony]

In addition to Cajun Beat and Clockstopper now you can ad Consolidator to the list of injured who Ran on BG day. It may be a coincidence that they all began with the letter C as well.

NC Tony

[shanahan]

agree...I saw it all from the grassy knoll...

High Limit didn\'t actually spend a lot of time on the rail. Typically, when there\'s a dead rail it\'s just the inside most path or a tad more. It\'s not a progressively better track as you move out. (I have seen exceptions at Belmont over the years).

I posted my analysis of the Blue Grass yesterday.



Post Edited (05-04-05 07:49)

[Sandreadis]

If you watch the Commenwealth BC and still think the rail was dead then we\'ll just agree to disagree.Gators ran in the 1 path the entire race.
Many on this site have theorized that Bandini\'s race may not have been as good as the #\'s indicate because the rail was dead and he was running in a more favorable part of the track.I didn\'t see it that way and that is why I suggested Bandini may have run better than many had thought.

[miff]

SANDREADIS,

Have you considered that G&B\'s ran well in spite of being on the worst part of the track.

[jimbo66]

Sandreadis,

I bet G&B and watched the race and replay several times.  It looked to me he ran in the two path, off the rail.  

G&B may have been 6th choice of 6, but those of us that are T-Graph users know he was not 6th fastest horse and in fact was as fast as the fastest horses in the race, on his best.  So, it was no surprise he ran well.

Also, you don\'t look at one race to ascertain a bias.  Look at the charts for the whole day.  If you want more evidence, watch the replays of all the races.  How many of the horses on the lead, still had their jockeys steering them into the 2 path.  When the jockeys all avoid the rail at Keenland, that is pretty good circumstantial evidence.  You can also review the charts and see how the horses running on the rail did versus their previous figures.

Or, you can rely on the experts to do that for you.  T-Graph has the day graded as a \"dead rail\".  They have done all the work and come to that conclusion.  I don\'t think T-Graph is aggressive in diagnosing track bias, in fact I would probably say the opposite, that they diagnose a bias less often than most.

[DeathBredon]

I think the rail was dead (read deep) that day, just as it had been fair live (hard) ealier in the meet.  Perhaps an overreaction by the grounds crew?

Anyhow, I would (but who am I) down grade Bandini and upgrade Frankel\'s horse.  Not that is matters if Bellamy and Alex are fore real.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Sandreadis wrote:

> If you watch the Commenwealth BC and still think the rail was
> dead then we\'ll just agree to disagree.Gators ran in the 1 path
> the entire race.

Gators was a bit more than 1 path wide until the turn. He settled in more closely to the rail on the turn and ran more closely to the rail in the stretch. It was a huge effort and he was staggering late.

His trainer is misusing him. He is a 6 to 6.5 mark horse. However, if he\'d stayed in the three path that day he\'d of won easily.

[Sandreadis]

Gator ran a length off of 1:22.06. If he wins easy from the 3 path, he runs 21 and 3. That\'s one of the 5 fastest 7 furlong times EVER at KEE.DRF lists a track variant of 13. Hard to imagine.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It was obviously the race of the day. The other raw race times dont\' compare to it and it may be for whatever reason the track was faster during that race.

A 1.22 is very hot. The winner retired on the effort and a pace contestor also retired. Gators was Staggering late and is a bona fide bounce candidate next. Still Clock Stopper was in the garden spot under Bailey and finally got up in a race in good time. Makes one wonder why he couldnt put Mr. Sword in a better position later. (Probably because he didnt know). Sword was overmatched that race however.

As far as the times go. The Keeneland record is 1.20.39 by Binalong. Theres been seven track records faster than 1.22

Not sure how many have topped 1.22 in the past three years. The track has played slower during that time.

http://www.keeneland.com/liveracing/records/track.asp