Del Mar Friday

[HP]

Any thoughts on tonight\'s card?  Usually I don\'t play Del Mar but I will take a swing at a few races (5 -- .  

I like Hello Fame a little in the 5th but I don\'t think I\'ll get 6-1.

I\'d like to believe that Baffert horse (Sweet Muqtarib) will be overbet in the 6th, and I\'m not wild about those high-weight horses on the outside either.  Passionate Heat should like turf (?).  This is the kind of race I bet a lot on and lose.

Smart Kitten may move up in the 7th.  Beyond this I\'m stumped.

I won\'t take short prices in the 8th, and I figure that Five J\'s is going to get beat by SOMEONE.

I generally do badly at these \"showcase\" meets, especially when they start.  Any regulars that could give me some ideas...thanks in advance.

HP

[xichibanx]

Race 5- I\'m taking a small shot with Charmer Baron...Big price we\'ll see..

Race 6- Bright Midnight looks solid however Knapp only wins when I don\'t bet him.

Race 7- Bid of Genius-Looks okay hopefully they\'ll bet the #1 down.

xichibanx who isn\'t confident.

[HP]

X,

I lucked out with that DQ in the 7th.  A great example of PACE handicapping for me!  On the sheets it was tough to make heads or tails of the race (I like Smart Kitten a little) but when I looked at the program, I thought that the 1 (he was bet down to I think 8/5 at post time?) would face some early pressure (and maybe duel out with Smart Kitten) so I played the horses that looked like they would run late (5, 6, 7 & since they were all good prices.  I loved the work line on the 7 (20-1) in particular.

I was a little surprised they took the one ALL THE WAY DOWN. I also thought the tri prices were a little light (on some of the other races too). But I\'ll take it.  

I got screwed on a DQ in the 5th at EVANGELINE (leaving me only with the 3-1 winner and not the big exacta payoff with my longshot getting DQed from 2nd to 3rd) so I guess I had a break coming.  

Del Mar is like the other \"Showcase\" meets -- tempting but tough!

HP

[xichibanx]

HP,

Good play there.  I threw out the #1 in the 7th at DMR as I felt he would be way overbet and bet Bid of Genius.  I gave a long look to the winner but went the wrong way..oh well it happens.

That was happened to me alot this meet zigging when I should be zagging I hope this doesn\'t happen at the Spa.

\"Del Mar is like the other \"Showcase\" meets -- tempting but tough!\" I\'ll add one piece to your statement \"and can be very profitable.\"

Best wishes,

xichibanx

[beyerguy]

If CtC or CH posted they liked a horse, then the horse ran last, and they returned to say they hit the exacta, whoa nellie!  

beyerguy,

I get yelled at for the post race analysis that\'s part of my process for finding future bets - even when I admit I lost.  

[HP]

Fair points.

I don\'t think xichibanx or I posted much in the way of \"analysis.\"

I guess this is what I get for acknowledging PACE in my handicapping! I knew this was a mistake.

Everyone probably does a few plays \"on the fly\" that don\'t jibe with their ideas from the night before...ah, to hell with it.  

I\'ll take my lumps on the past-posting.

HP

[beyerguy]

Just teasing with you HP, I did not in any way mean to imply you didn\'t hit it, and that\'s a nice hit.  Hell, I change my mind 5 times in the last 2 mtp, I wouldn\'t care to guess how many when I post picks early.