perryville and value

[huck]

First, want to thank everyone at thoro-graph, I don\'t bet without the product. I believe they get the number right a majority of the time, and when they don\'t, I feel it\'s probably due to a unique situation. I chuckle to myself when guys complain about certain races,for example this weeks ROTW. Analysis was right on, to comment that the top pick finished third, tells me the guy doesn\'t get it . This is all about value, problem is everyone always says that. Truth is most people don\'t know fair value, therefore they have no idea if they are getting value. I think people need to focus more on making the correct wager and less on picking the winner. I do have a question for Jerry regarding Friday\'s Perryville.  When a horse like Vicarage runs off and beats Social Probation by 12+, how do you go about making each horse\'s number. These are the situations I think must be tough. Keeneland seems to have this problem alot. I can\'t believe that SP backed off his 2 by much, but that would leave Vic with a big neg. Jerry I appreciate the response, as you know Straight Line was in the race so I am very curious to hear what you thought of the race. Thanks again.                  

[Wrongly]

Huck

A quick question, a race or two back Staight Line tried the turf for the first time with less than stellar results.  The breeding, especially the dam says turf.  What happened?  Will we see Straight Line try the turf again?  

[TGAB]

JB is out of the office and will be back on Wednesday. As to the ROTW comments, amen--you do get it.  

[jimbo66]

Allen/Huck,

The ROTW was on target this week, nobody should debate that. Coming in 3rd at a price, with the two horses that were identified as the horses to beat, is a good analysis.  

But Huck\'s comment about worrying less about winning and more about making the right bet is a large bunch of horse manure.  Very few of us pursue betting on horses as some altruistic exercise.  We buy the T-graph product because we believe it gives us a better shot to win.  (except for those that might buy it for horse management reasons).  

Granted, making the right bet should lead to cashing more tickets and making you a winner, but let\'s not suggest we focus less on winning.  

If I could make alldumb bets and win, I would take that over making all \"smart\" bets and constantly losing......
 

[huck]

Wrongly

we did try SL on turf, and  I don\'t know what to make of the effort. He went 5 wide around the whole track,only lost by 4+ to a nice horse who just ran 2nd in 250k race Sat.. However, he still didn\'t look comfortable to me.But that could be because it was 2 turns, he just doesn\'t seem to relax going 2 turns. But we are all in agreement we must try again next year, his best chance to make good money would be on the turf at 4. I was happy with his effort fri. and we are thinking of running him right back at 7 1/2 at Churchill.

Jimbo 66

Wasn\'t my intent to sound negative, but I do beleive this is about making money and having some fun. People always ask me for a horse and I don\'t know how to respond. Do you tell them the most probable horse or the 10-1 with a 20% chance to win.My point is if you are picking the best horse most of the time, I believe you are headed for ruin. Everyone handicaps different, I personally try to beat horses, more than figure out the winner. I\'m sure we could discuss this topic for quite some time, but I bet many people waste quite a bit of money because they don\'t really understand value.

   

[jimbo66]

I understand Huck.  Actually, after I wrote my response, I realized I probably misinterpreted your statement.  

Making the right bet will lead to a better ROI in the long run.  Even if you look foolish once in a while chasing a bomb who runs like a cow.  

[TGJB]

Huck-- I\'ll post about the Vicarage number once I do it, wonder if that explosion was connected to John Chance\'s comments about certain trainers at Kee.

Congrats to you and the missus on making the NTRA finals.

[TGJB]

Huck-- I had to cut the race loose in order for it to make any sense at all-- if I didn\'t, Vicarage would have gotten by far the best figure of all time. I added a lot. In the end, I still gave him a pretty big negative, your horse basically a return to his top, and everyone else well off their tops-- which is pretty unusual for stake level 3yos. But it was the way that made the most sense, and it looks pretty solid.

[huck]

Jerry, thanks, I don\'t win that contest without the simulcast package. I also appeciate answer on Straight Line, I thought he looked good and thought time was really fast. I was told SLine got an 82 Beyer, which is about 15 points slower than he usually gets, which only tells me he they didn\'t know the race was 7f and 184 ft. Vicarage almost ran as fast as they did 2 races before, going a flat 7f, and they were fast horses. We plan to run him back in the Ack ACk, we\'ll see what happens. Thanks again.