STARCRAFT?

[high roller]

how does one go about evaluating this horse in a dirt race?

[NoCarolinaTony]

First you have to consider the owners and trainers conviction to fork over $800 large to enter into this race. They must not think much of the competition after sizing it up all week. I admire them for taking a shot.

NC Tony

[jbelfior]

If anything, you want to upgrade the chances of a Euro turf miler over a turfer who has been consistently going longer. The milers tend to be able to stay in touch early, while the turf marathoners tend to leave themselves with too much to do when switched to the dirt.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Highroller,

I think you evaluate him on a risk/reward basis.

The risks are:

1.  He has never tried the dirt.

2.  He is not well bred for the dirt.

3.  He has not won at the distance and his better races are at shorter trips.

4.  he doesn\'t have the figures to compete here.


The reward is:

1.  Right now, he is bet down to 7-1 offshore, so he is about the 4th choice in the Classic, without even a commitment that he will run there.  


Many reasons not to like and no value.  

An easy throwout for me.

[HP]

I don\'t think you can really say \"he doesn\'t have the figures to compete here.\"  He doesn\'t have dirt figures period.  His turf numbers would make him a tough contender in the turf races, so if he\'s better on dirt...you never know.  You\'re other points are on the money though (pedigree, etc.).  

There is another potential \"reward\" in that you\'re getting a horse that\'s run on a less punishing surface this year, so he may be a little less beat up than some of those that have run huge dirt numbers recently.  

He\'s a headache, although at 7-1, I\'m with you.  I have a feeling he\'ll be longer...  

HP