FILLY TURF?

[high roller]

how does everyone see this race? is ouija board a bet against?

[richiebee]

High Roller asked if Ouija is a bet against in the F/M Turf..

Turf Condition next Saturday? Looking at long term weather outlook, calling for some rain in mid week, still think that Inner Turf Course will be good to firm.

Last year OB came in to the BC off 3 strong wins against her own gender and a very good 3rd against males in the Arc de Triomphe. People questioned her ability to handle the soft course and tight turns at Lone Star, yet she won kind of easily at 4/5.

I think if all had gone well with OB this year, she may have tried males in the BC Turf. Instead, she comes back to defend her title in the F/M race off 2 preps. IMO she is again the favorite, but due to questions arising from her brief 05 campaign, she could be 9/5, not 4/5.

How about the others? Angara seems to be tailing off following a long campaign. Riskaverse has never put 2 wins together in her career. Frankel\'s  uncoupled entry of Intercontinental and Megahertz have both put together great Grade 1 winning, multiple Graded stakes winning resumes, yet Frankel comes in 3/60 in the BC and ice cold at the Belmont fall meet.

As has been repeated here numerous times, Wonder Again\'s chances increase with a soft turf. If you watch the replay of last years FM Turf, Prado had her in some tight spots. She could be 5/2 to OB\'s 9/5 as Prado looks for his first BC victory.

My 2 stabs in this race would be Wend (Mott) and Favourable Terms (Sir Michael Stoute). Both would have to improve significantly to take this race. You don\'t need me to tell you how strong Mott is on turf; his runners hold four of Belmont\'s turf course records (2 were set this year-- are racehorses getting faster on turf?).

Favourable Terms looks more like a miler than a 10 furlong animal, but hung up a Timeform # of 120 (TG # 3) in her 10 furlong victory last year at Goodwood. At 20/1 (and probably higher) odds, this mare, who comes in off an awful race over soft going, will be somewhere on my tickets.

Again, I expect that OB may be only slightly favored over Wonder Again and the Frankel mares. It would be hard for me to make a P4/P6 ticket that didn\'t include her, but IMO she is in no way a \"single\".

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

I am leaning very strongly towards Wend. This one was flying late at a mile  at KEE last time and almost beat Intercontinental at her own game. She broke awkwardly and slow, but this time she rated, which she couldn\'t do earlier in the year. OB, Wonder Again, Megahertz, and Favourable Terms are also my Keys to this race.

NC Tony

[scottv]

I would not be so quick to throw out Angara.  Look at that Manhatten race and then her Beverly D.  She\'s the type of horse that you never want to bet after a good race, but, like an unreliable claiming horse, she will show up in the money at 30-1 after throwing in a few clunkers.

I\'m keeping her in my stuff.

I think this is the toughest race of the day. I\'d like to take a crack against OB if she goes off at a short price (she\'s pretty short in some future bets I\'ve seen). I\'m not convinced she\'s the same horse as last year based on her last race. However, there aren\'t any clear cut alternatives. Personally, I\'m not overly impressed by any of these fillies. I think this is the kind of field where someone can develop a bit and move right past the whole group. I guess I\'m leaning towards Wend a little because she\'s good and she\'s still lightly raced. She has an excellent overall record too. Her last against Intercontinental was very good. She closed a lot of ground at 8F against a pretty tough customer at those shorter distances despite the pace being slow. I\'m going to want firm gound though. I may also have to throw in an unknown like Favourable Terms based on the quality of a few of her better races.  

[big18741]

Wend struggled over yielding turf in the Beverly D. I like her to be a factor in the race if its good going.

I\'ve been waiting all spring and summer with an eye on Film Maker for this race.Graham Motion is a brilliant grass trainer.He brought BTN up to a peak race in last years TURF as a 5yo.Film Maker had a nice easy campaign(5 races)designed to have her at peak on Saturday.She runs over anything-and never runs a bad race.With a decent trip even if she runs her 2 and change she\'ll be a factor.

She\'s had 5 different riders in her races this year.Film Maker is a little bit quirky,so it takes at least one to get familiar.PVal gets back on after the Flower Bowl where he waited a bit too long to set her down.He won\'t make the same mistake twice.Motion will have her ready to roll-all she needs is a trip and some racing luck.A new top puts her in the winners circle at double digits.

[Mossman30]

Absolutely no one in this race deserves to be less than 5/2. Wonder Again is the fastest horse but I see no way she\'ll be lower than 4-1.  She was 6-1 in the Flower Bowl against 8 others and now she faces 13.  Furthermore, she has yet to win this year.  At 6-1 or higher she\'ll be my play in this wide open affair.

[NoCarolinaTony]

She retires after this race and she has Mr 0-41 on her.