another BELMONT Day story

[nunzio]

My buddy & I are looking at Judges Case
and asking how he could be 27-1 (at the time)
in this field and since we both knew the horse well seeing him run in NY several times, we started to try & poke holes in him
as to why he was such a big price.  
We convinced ourselves that Araya wasn\'t as good as Iwinski (recent claim)  so he wouldn\'t likely fire his A race.  We looked at each other after the race and came to the conclusion that at 30-1 we should have played him even if  he was training himself. Ugh !

Nunzio

[HP]

Actually a great illustration of an axiom: The public ALWAYS overbets the last race. Judge\'s Case ran an uncharacteristically bad race last out and everybody tossed him. HP

[TGJB]

And of a second \"axiom\"--bad efforts when shipping (in this case to MTH) or first time over a track shouldn\'t always be taken seriously when they are out of line with the horse\'s history.

[nunzio]

Jerry,

Yes, you are correct. That thought crossed my mind.  AND not only that, he was checked pretty severely in that MTH race &
lost all chance.   Geez, I feel like a
real idiot now.  Thanks for driving this point home, I will remeber this scenario
next time for sure.  30-1 should always
lead to giving the benfit of the doubt,
at least as a saver !

Did you play him ?

Nunzio

[TGJB]

I made a $10, 4 horse tri box that ran 1-2-4-5, and keyed Wild Summer in exactas with the other 3.