Mechanics

[analizethis]

Question on mechanics: Each week the ROTW provides a basic explanation for TG numbers by defining the TG numbers assigned for lengths lost, weight carried and paths raced away from the rail.

This week I tried to work through the numbers for two horses in the Mass Cap coming out of the Whitney (Fairbanks and Brass Hat).

Fairbanks (beaten 7 ½ lengths) beat Brass Hat (beaten 12 ¾ lengths) by 5 ¼ lengths however Brass Hat raced 6 lengths further (5w +5w) – (2w + 2w) and carried 10 extra pounds (126 – 116) as opposed to this week where he carries only 1 extra pound (116 – 115) giving him credit for another 1 ¾ lengths rounded.

Therefore Brass Hat (-5 ¼ + 6 + 1 ¾ ) was 2 ½ lengths better then Fairbanks which should equate to between 1 ¼ and 1 ½ points at the Whitney distance of 1 1/8 miles but in fact the difference in the TG numbers is only ¾ point. What I am doing wrong here? Perhaps, the answer is in the phase “the figures are adjusted for weight carried in previous races”, out of the ROTW write up.

Thanks for considering this question.

[Michael D.]

make that 118 lbs for BH.

126 was the next race.

who do you like here? it\'s a pretty good race.

[TGJB]

In the Whitney, SECOND race back for Brass Hat, he carried 118, not 126 (that was in his last race, the Woodward, which Fairbanks did not run in). Until I figured that out I was scratching my head.

How much they carry tomorrow does not affect previous figures.

If you work through the Whitney relationships-- where both horses ran-- the difference is 2 1/2 points, which is what it is on the sheet.

[analizethis]

Thanks for setting me straight.

An untested Dr Pleasure with a rail trip holds the key. Presuming he is healthy he figures to move forward. If Brass Hat can save some ground, at lease around one turn, from his outside post he could be a factor too.