Today's Wood Memorial

[pj]

As usual, I don\'t say a lot. But I really like the line on Texas Wildcatter. I don\'t believe his slop figure is \"fake\". He will run a negative number and win.
I will bet him big; win and place.

On another note, it\'s too bad War Pass won\'t win. He would have taken major money in the Derby.

I said a month ago, that we haven\'t seen the \"real Derby winner\" yet. Maybe today he shows-up at Aqueduct.

Good luck TGJB with your future bet.

pat

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is an exciting time of year. In five months, everyone will know where this year\'s 3YO crop stands. The colts (and fillies) will have sorted themselves out and will have established their performance niches. But at this juncture they haven\'t yet and thats what makes it all so exciting.

My dear, dear friend Hail to Richie, believes that the running of this year\'s Gotham was a potential bell-weather for determining which colts are on the improve. Apparently because even though the Gotham is a \"Tube\" race, it was \"Graded\" and thus counts more. He also believes that Texas Wildcatter made a \"premature middle move\" on the slop and that is why he squandered a substantial lead and was gunned down late on the line. Hail to Richie is a discerning man. He\'s adept with a pen or typewriter. But he\'s gonna have to elaborate upon how without fractional time he can determine that a move was premature.

I have an anecdotal method of going over slop races and it\'s tenet is that \"modern\" slop favors speed and a horse that wins from behind in the slop is better than a horse that can\'t hold on in the slop. So what does that mean? Well, if you\'re not gonna discount a Tube race merely because it\'s ungraded look at the Whirlaway. In that race Roman Emperor beat Texas Wildcatter by 2. So between the Whirlaway and Gotham what changed? Well, the track came up sloppy and Texas got his slop goggles on. If one thinks the fact that the Gotham came up sloppy was a bigger factor than the fact that the Gotham was graded there\'s a couple horses that have to be reconsidered. Of course, they are Tube Rats. Isn\'t it remarkable how this writer feints and reverses his field?...lol

Which brings us to the next consideration. His Hostliness the Magnificent Beneficence. (And I do say that with both sincere appreciation and constant fear of permanent banishment) Any way, he took the Cat at 75-1 in a future. His Hostliness is a shrewd man so the question becomes \"when did he take the plunge?\" Well, the evidence indicates he took the plunge after the first Tube effort. That would reveal Texas on a two year old forge and getting back to his 2YO top right back out of the gate as a three year old. However, there is the issue of \"winter break\". Poor Texas never got to go home for Christmas. And now he\'s got a four point top on the slop. He does fit the general TGraph form of improvement, quickly back to top. But what about slop?

Much of my analysis factors Texas Wildcatter a win toss and a perfecta beat at second choice at 2-1 maybe 5-2. If he goes off at 6-1 again, I may include him. But that said, this is the perfect race for Hail to Richie, pen in hand, to have his feline friend in the gate at the Youbettube and with gentle pen licks to Kitty\'s rump exclaim \"don\'t give up kitty, get him kitty, oh please, please kitty run that s.o.b. down!\"


pj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As usual, I don\'t say a lot. But I really like the
> line on Texas Wildcatter. I don\'t believe his slop
> figure is \"fake\". He will run a negative number
> and win.
> I will bet him big; win and place.
>
> On another note, it\'s too bad War Pass won\'t win.
> He would have taken major money in the Derby.
>
> I said a month ago, that we haven\'t seen the \"real
> Derby winner\" yet. Maybe today he shows-up at
> Aqueduct.
>
> Good luck TGJB with your future bet.
>
> pat

[TGJB]

CTC-- I bet him after the Gotham. He was under the radar until I talked him up (I kept quiet partly because we were trying to get something done with him), and my guess is if he had been a fast closing second in the Gotham instead of losing lengths in the stretch he would be half the price. And yes, the top over an off track raises questions.

Richie-- Arm and Hammer etc. was pretty funny.

For some reason, people seem to forget this is a TG board. I don\'t mind people including other elements in their discussions, but handicapping races ONLY using completely different (anti-sheets/figures) thinking belongs somewhere else. This is not a DRF board, it\'s not Ainslie\'s board, and it\'s not there for everyone to use to write their name in the snow. I\'m not talking about Richie or CTC here-- but there are people who come on here to give their opinions that have never looked at a set of sheets in their life, and it shows in their analysis.

[BitPlayer]

A lot of what the ROTW analysis said about First Commandment could also be said about Texas Wildcatter.  He\'s back on only 4 weeks rest off a big new top.

The fact that he was working down to a \"0\", as opposed to a \"4.25\", is another negative.  A while ago I looked through a few years of TG\'s Triple Crown archives to pick out new tops run by 3yos, looking at how big the tops were and how they affected the next race.  For improvements of between 3 and 5 points working down to a top of better than \"2\" (15 horses), only one horse (Bernardini) ran a new top, and only 20% ran a new top or paired in their next race.  For similar improvements working down to a top of \"2\" or worse (16 horses), over 65% ran new tops or paired in their next race.

I\'d guess the most likely outcome for TW (and perhaps the best for TGJB\'s future wager) is that he goes back a couple of points.  With ground saved and another off performance for War Pass, he\'s still a very likely winner, but more others come into the picture.  If I owned TW and wanted to win the Derby, I\'d tell Coa to ride for second money.

[Michael D.]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A lot of what the ROTW analysis said about First
> Commandment could also be said about Texas
> Wildcatter.  He\'s back on only 4 weeks rest off a
> big new top.
>
> The fact that he was working down to a \"0\", as
> opposed to a \"4.25\", is another negative.  A while
> ago I looked through a few years of TG\'s Triple
> Crown archives to pick out new tops run by 3yos,
> looking at how big the tops were and how they
> affected the next race.  For improvements of
> between 3 and 5 points working down to a top of
> better than \"2\" (15 horses), only one horse
> (Bernardini) ran a new top, and only 20% ran a new
> top or paired in their next race.  For similar
> improvements working down to a top of \"2\" or worse
> (16 horses), over 65% ran new tops or paired in
> their next race.
>
> I\'d guess the most likely outcome for TW (and
> perhaps the best for TGJB\'s future wager) is that
> he goes back a couple of points.  With ground
> saved and another off performance for War Pass,
> he\'s still a very likely winner, but more others
> come into the picture.  If I owned TW and wanted
> to win the Derby, I\'d tell Coa to ride for second
> money.


I\'d prefer the horse hold his \'0\' form if I had a futures ticket.


the odds are going to be interesting. they are going to mark CV lower than 6-1 with the track playing a bit heavy.

[TGJB]

1-- The big difference between TW and FC is the 2yo top.

2-- Horses are faster than they used to be. That dividing line of \"2\" might not apply any more.

I make TW about even money to pair up.