Big Brown Runs

[Eight Belles]

Check out the stakes 2 races after the Florida Derby.  Electrify won by over 8 lengths in a time of 1:47.85, about 3 tenths of a second faster than BB.

The turf race that was run in 1:45 and change only got the winner an 89.

[Eight Belles]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wheelaway?  I am not sure I get that comparison.
> He was my bet in that Belmont and he sat the trip
> right behind the cheap speed (commendable) and
> then came up empty in the lane, and then later
> they found some kind of injury.
>
> Big Brown came up nowhere near empty in the lane
> in the Florida Derby.  He was tired from setting a
> very fast pace, while wide, running further than
> he has run before, with very little foundation for
> a 1 1/8 race.  Perfectly acceptable.
>
> Be careful creating an injury that didn\'t happen.


Maybe so, but it\'s interesting when you read Haskin\'s latest to find that Sheikh Mo had a signed contract for $2 million after his first race yet he didn\'t pass the vet due to an ankle.  Might mean nothing, might mean something, might mean something but further down the road.

[miff]

\"Maybe so, but it\'s interesting when you read Haskin\'s latest to find that Sheikh Mo had a signed contract for $2 million after his first race yet he didn\'t pass the vet due to an ankle. Might mean nothing, might mean something, might mean something but further down the road\"

Eight B,

.....It is also reported(unconfirmed) that the same people offered $30 million after the race. They are all one bad step away from disaster even if they vet perfectly. It\'s a total crap shoot unles they are immediately retired.


Mike

[miff]

Jim,

Remains to be seen if he gets the mile and a quarter but I can\'t see anything that says no, so far.I\'m sure you noticed that he is a big long striding thing that LOOKS like he can run forever.In all three races he was basically running away from the field, showing no sign of coming back.

Now if he\'s hooked early, then we\'ll see if  he\'s a special one, but it\'s certain now that he\'s faster than anyone else to this point.Unless Pyro runs giant in the BG, BB will be favored,imo.

BB may be able to overcome his inexperience with his big early gas.It was no small feat that he outbroke the field from post 12 angled over rather sharply(losing some ground) cleared by the turn, took pressure and still ran pretty fast the rest of the way.The long run to the first turn at CD should play to his strength,we\'ll see.

As far as him bouncing, I have to heavily discount that possibly since Tricky will be loving him for 5 whole weeks, which is an eternity for his magic to work.Trickys supposed lack of triple crown experience is a joke, that experience stuff is all voodoo if you have beast in the barn.

Would normally be salivating to stand against this type of horse but Tricky is peerless and I have too much respect/fear for his consistent magic.


Mike

[RICH]

I agree, and I still think Smooth Air ran a very, very credible race, He looked ok to me at the end with a nice finish, check out the replay. BB ran the fastest derby in years. Smooth Air was only 5 back and 7 in front of the third finisher. If everyone loves BB, why not the under the radar SA. I can see him hitting the board on derby day.

[BitPlayer]

Rich -

Nice call by you and Upper Nile betting him at over 100/1 in the futures pool.  Based on his pedigree and the fact that he took a step backwards figurewise when stretching out in the Sam Davis, I thought he wouldn\'t be able to handle 9f.  I was obviously wrong.  He\'s shown the willingness to run inside and the ability to make up ground running the turn.  If he can duplicate his Florida Derby effort in Louisville and get a little lucky, who knows where he might end up.

[RICH]

Thank You, from your mouth to God\'s ears. He will pay 386.00 to win. A longshot, but a shot

[Eight Belles]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Maybe so, but it\'s interesting when you read
> Haskin\'s latest to find that Sheikh Mo had a
> signed contract for $2 million after his first
> race yet he didn\'t pass the vet due to an ankle.
> Might mean nothing, might mean something, might
> mean something but further down the road\"
>
> Eight B,
>
> .....It is also reported(unconfirmed) that the
> same people offered $30 million after the race.
> They are all one bad step away from disaster even
> if they vet perfectly. It\'s a total crap shoot
> unles they are immediately retired.
>
>
> Mike


I don\'t believe that rumor.  If it was true, then why wasn\'t he sold?  Who in their right mind doesnt\' take $30 million for a son of Boundary with only 3 races to his credit and bad feet?  Are the owners so dumb to not realize that he\'ll never be worth more than right now and that $30 million?  I don\'t believe it.  These owners will claim to be offered something that never really was on the table but just flown at them to see their reactions.

The $2 million was a real offer since he was vetted (meaning the contract was signed).  So in addition to having bad hooves, we learn he has something going on in an ankle that was enough for the Sheikh to walk away from paying pocket change for him.  I think that\'s something to keep in mind when looking at BB and how he comes up to the Derby.

[ronwar]

SA made a very nice eye catching move on the turn and was able to sustain thru the stretch...Very impressive! I think he definately took a step forward and winning the whole ball of wax is not out of the question.

[sekrah]

I saw Smooth Air had a similar middle move in his previous race, but the pace was so god awful slow he couldn\'t make up enough ground.

I\'m am holding a 90-1 futures ticket on him.

[Michael D.]

ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SA made a very nice eye catching move on the turn
> and was able to sustain thru the stretch...Very
> impressive! I think he definately took a step
> forward and winning the whole ball of wax is not
> out of the question.


not sure SA sustained the move through the stretch. he ran a :13.7 final 1/8 while drifting out over a quick surface after a perfect trip.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Big Richee Bee asked if the \"foundation\" issue bothers me. The answer is yes it does. It was on foundation that I couldn\'t make Curlin the winner last year and as fate would have it in the Derby, Curlin encountered trouble for the first time in his career and was life and death to get third.

That said, I\'m less concerned about foundation for BRB. The reason being, that barring a break mishap, he figures to run a race relatively clear of trouble. Foundation is what a horse needs to overcome adversity. Provided he makes the gate, I\'m really not projecting too much adversity for BRB. It will be a question of whether he comes in ready, can get another eighth, and how fast the half and six mark fractions are. My sense is they will be substantially slower than the wide fractional effort BRB just ran.

In my vision, War Pass comes back and wires the Wood. War Pass makes the Derby field and breaks sharp for the lead tracked a length (hopefully two) back by BRB. As they turn for the stretch the speed horses are on even terms. Splitting overmatched and tired horses three closers surge up into possible striking distance. One of them is Smooth Air.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> Remains to be seen if he gets the mile and a
> quarter but I can\'t see anything that says no, so
> far.I\'m sure you noticed that he is a big long
> striding thing that LOOKS like he can run
> forever.In all three races he was basically
> running away from the field, showing no sign of
> coming back.
>
> Now if he\'s hooked early, then we\'ll see if  he\'s
> a special one, but it\'s certain now that he\'s
> faster than anyone else to this point.Unless Pyro
> runs giant in the BG, BB will be favored,imo.
>
> BB may be able to overcome his inexperience with
> his big early gas.It was no small feat that he
> outbroke the field from post 12 angled over rather
> sharply(losing some ground) cleared by the turn,
> took pressure and still ran pretty fast the rest
> of the way.The long run to the first turn at CD
> should play to his strength,we\'ll see.
>
> As far as him bouncing, I have to heavily discount
> that possibly since Tricky will be loving him for
> 5 whole weeks, which is an eternity for his magic
> to work.Trickys supposed lack of triple crown
> experience is a joke, that experience stuff is all
> voodoo if you have beast in the barn.
>
> Would normally be salivating to stand against this
> type of horse but Tricky is peerless and I have
> too much respect/fear for his consistent magic.
>
>
> Mike

[fkach]

Could someone with some pedigree expertise explain to me why War Pass (by Cherokee Run) is viewed as very \"suspect\" to get the 10F of the Derby but Big Brown (by Boundary) is hardly mentioned as similarly suspect?

I realize the other side matters also, but I don\'t have enough expertise or information to know whether there is a legitimate difference or just a perception of a difference.

[miff]

Fkach,

For what it\'s worth, WP and BB have superior mile and a quarter breeding to 17 of the 23 derby candidates acccording to the Tomilson distance ratings. Top, bottom and immediate extended family are used in making the rating.


Mike