Impending Controversies

[TGJB]

There have been some interesting figure-making decisions in big races lately. Beyer cut the Bonnie Miss loose from the Fla Derby big-time (to the tune of 7 of our points, over 20 of his). Those were consecutive races, and while I did have the track speeding up a little, it was not nearly as much as that. The result was that I gave BB much better than Andy did, a huge figure (as those who got the Derby contenders know), and She\'s All Eltish (whom I offered to 4 clients the week before the race) not as fast as he did. It would be interesting to know what Len gave BB, and maybe someone out there who got his Derby package or saw it can tell us. Miff?

The other big one concerns the Illinois Derby, for the second time in three years. They do a lot of things that change track speed during the day at Hawthorne, and I broke that race out big-time, because the way I did it fit tight, where doing it with the rest of the routes on the day (or anywhere near it) would have given almost the entire field huge jump-ups. Andy gave the race a much better figure than I did, though it looks like he cut it loose to some degree as well. The big question is what whoever does that track for Ragozin will do-- if they stick with their theoretical one-size-fits-all variant, they have to give several horses huge figures.

[miff]

JB,


Unconfirmed BB 2 3/4 on Rags or a TG Neg -3/4 on my comparison scale. I thought you would have BB at app neg -2 which would be close with Beyer 106, adjusted for weight and ground.


Mike

[TGJB]

That would be shockingly slow for BB on Ragozin-- if that\'s true they must have had the fillies going unbelievably slow, since they won\'t split the races.

[miff]

JB,

Think the Ill derby was a bit of a fraud, not only did the track change speed  but the preceding 3 races were wire jobs along the inside just like the winner. I questioned the Beyer fig 102 also but so far they stand behind it.DOC,Zhumor and Atoned all put in common performances. Maybe a mid card inside speed bias accompanied the speeding up surface.
 
Also thought that Col John ran faster than the Beyer fig but it seems all three fig guys are punishing the poly runners figs and I wonder how comfortable you, Hopkins and Friedman are with those surfaces. I am still of the opinion that most dirt horses that run constant figs on dirt cannot run as fast on poly(or turf) as it is definitely a third surface.



Mike

[TGJB]

I\'m comfortable in the sense that it is not hard to make figures for races over synthetics. But it absolutely is a third (and fourth if you split poly and cushion) surface, and has to be handicapped that way. Nothing like a little extra randomness in a game with a zillion variables.

[miff]

\"That would be shockingly slow for BB on Ragozin-- if that\'s true they must have had the fillies going unbelievably slow, since they won\'t split the races\"

JB,

..... unconfirmed from Raggie Richie, someone must have the confirmation.I saw his previous Rag sheet and from memory believe he ran 3 1/2 at gulf in his first start in 08. So len thinks he came forward app 3/4 of a point in the Fla Derby if I have the figs correct.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry,

I don\'t think anyone would have an issue with a big number by Big J. Brown in the Fladerby. But, I don\'t see how you can go too big with Smooth Air only finishing 5 lengths back. BJB essentially ran two positions wide for half the first turn. Smooth Air 1 position wide for the 2nd turn. Almost a visual wash.

Smoothy had much more of an established performance range. If you give Smooth Air a 2, how fast can you have BRB?



TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There have been some interesting figure-making
> decisions in big races lately. Beyer cut the
> Bonnie Miss loose from the Fla Derby big-time (to
> the tune of 7 of our points, over 20 of his).
> Those were consecutive races, and while I did have
> the track speeding up a little, it was not nearly
> as much as that. The result was that I gave BB
> much better than Andy did, a huge figure (as those
> who got the Derby contenders know), and She\'s All
> Eltish (whom I offered to 4 clients the week
> before the race) not as fast as he did. It would
> be interesting to know what Len gave BB, and maybe
> someone out there who got his Derby package or saw
> it can tell us. Miff?
>
> The other big one concerns the Illinois Derby, for
> the second time in three years. They do a lot of
> things that change track speed during the day at
> Hawthorne, and I broke that race out big-time,
> because the way I did it fit tight, where doing it
> with the rest of the routes on the day (or
> anywhere near it) would have given almost the
> entire field huge jump-ups. Andy gave the race a
> much better figure than I did, though it looks
> like he cut it loose to some degree as well. The
> big question is what whoever does that track for
> Ragozin will do-- if they stick with their
> theoretical one-size-fits-all variant, they have
> to give several horses huge figures.

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

Since the final time of the Bonnie Miss was aberrantly slow (perhaps due to the major traffic jam caused by She\'s All Eltish when she got rank in the first turn), wouldn\'t the conservative approach be to cut it loose completely (as you would a slow pace race) and do the Florida Derby together with the 9f dirt stake (won by Electrify) that followed 2 races later?  Otherwise, you may be allowing the Bonnie Miss mess to soil your other figures.

Not criticizing, just trying to understand how you think about these things.  It\'s always been my impression from reading this board that you were most often criticized for cutting too many races loose, so it surprises me that you\'re hesitant to do so in this case.

[jimbo66]

Well, although I am far from a figure maker, it certainly doesn\'t surprise me that Big Brown got a very big figure from Thorograph.  Looking at the raw times from the day and the figures that other horses had run previously, I was really surprised that BB only got a 106 on Beyer.  I was not quite expecting a 120 like Bellamy Road got in his Wood, but I was thinking 112 to 116 or so.  

So, Beyer has it slow and so does Ragozin.  I, along with others on this board, are Thorograph users, so if we go with Jerry\'s figure, what do we do about it on Derby day?  

The fact that on his best, BB is much faster than everybody except War Pass\'s sloppy track BC win is good to know.  But what are the chances that BB runs his big figure again?  As pointed out in many threads here, most of these \"huge figure\" 3 year old prep races have NOT resulted in big Derby wins.  I didn\'t buy the special this past weekend, so I don\'t know what BB got in the Fla Derby, but for Jerry to call it huge and say Beyer had a 20 point adjustment, I would guesstimate we are talking at least negative 3 and maybe as high as negative 5.

So, bounce to the moon?

Or run away from the field and hide as much the best?

Take your pick!!  To me, this has become the single most important question as to what to do on Derby day, decide how you view Big Brown.

[TGJB]

Bit-- that\'s basically the way I did it, and I didn\'t make too much of an adjustment on the Bonnie Miss, either (less than 3 points). I have confirmation on the Rag number for BB, honestly don\'t get it. Can\'t wait to see their Bonnie Miss numbers.

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

To the extent that a controversy develops, there may be some resolution before the Derby.  With the Florida Derby being 5 weeks out, there\'s a good chance that some of horses from the Florida Derby and the Electrify race will run back before May 3.  I think Hey Byrn is supposed to run back in the Holy Bull this weekend.

[TGJB]

By controversy I didn\'t mean doubt. Even if there was doubt, a couple of horses running back usually (there are exceptions) wouldn\'t tell you that much, but this is even more true with horses running back on 2 weeks (HB) or over poly in the Lexington.

The Florida Derby figures are solid. That does NOT necessarily mean that I would expect those that ran new tops in the race to run right back to them.

The controversy (discrepencies) will be bigger over the Illinois Derby figures, anyway.

[BitPlayer]

Just found this posted on the Downey Profile site:

\"Bob Holthus, who\'s preparing Pure Clan for the Kentucky Oaks, said that, of the 3-year-olds in training, the sheets gave Big Brown the best number (-1) for his Florida Derby victory, and Eight Belles the second best number (+3) for her Fantasy victory.\"

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/index.html#Racing

I assume Holthus is reciting Ragozin numbers.  If so, that doesn\'t sound very different from the way you handled the Florida Derby.

[TGJB]

That\'s interesting, especially since guys on the Rag board have been quoting a figure 3 points higher. And yes, it makes more sense-- it\'s a little faster than we gave him, which is not surprising since the way they do things they have to use the exact same variant for the ulta-slow Bonnie Miss. They essentially split the difference.

Since we have a Graph Racing sw mare in foal to Unbridled\'s Song, we have more than a passing interest in where Eight Belles goes. I wish they hadn\'t been pounding on her every three weeks-- I think the BI last time was a sign that might be getting to her.

If it was my call-- since she has not won a GI, I would run in the Oaks. If she had, tough call. Clearly the most likely winner of the Oaks, more likely to hit the board in the Derby than win it.

[TGJB]

Time to cool it, pal.