Michael D and Buck,
I guess it would be no surprise if Country Star won the race, but you want to play the 2nd favorite to have to make a 3+ point forward move to win the race? The horse fired fresh in the past, ran well on poly in the past, and is trained by Frankel, who is huge off the layoff. With those things going for her, she only paired her 2 year old top. I wouldn\'t be playing Frankel for a 3 point forward move, second off the layoff and the fillie needs it to win, as she has no tactical speed and will likely be wide, unless the red sea parts. At 7-2 to 4-1, I will pass.
As for Golden Doc, I can\'t blame anybody for taking 12-1 on a fast horse, with a nice inside draw. But I can\'t help but think this horse is going to run significantly worse on dirt. This isn\'t like Colonel John, where you can see dirt breeding. THis is Unusual Heat on top, who is significantly better on turf and synthetic.
Proud Spell is a legit favorite in here and I probably the fillie to beat, but her best figure was sitting second in a four horse race behind a filly who probably is a better sprinter (although classy). Proud Citizen offspring look like early developers, at least with the small sample so far.
I hate to play a horse that needs a new top to win, but Bsharpsonata looks real good in here to me. She runs her race whether sprinting or routing, on turf, on poly or on dirt. Was dead game in winning the GP sprint race and just got outgamed in the Ashland. She has tactical speed and I could envision a pretty decent trip, even with the outside post, as there isn\'t a ton of speed in the race. Perhaps sitting 3rd or 4th early, behind Awesome Chic, Elusive Lady and Little belle, none of whom look like contenders. The pattern looks good enough to have a nice shot at a new top. i think you get every bit of the ML of 6-1, ensured by the low profile connections. Put Prado on this filly and she is 3-1 IMO.
