TG/idiot

[HP]

Looking at these payoffs, what could I have been accomplishing by throwing out BB and not at least using a saver with him on top!  Eight Belles (ran a 0 - with the weight), Denis of Cork (ditto) and Tale of Ekati (double ditto) under brings back $58K in the super?  Man this just kills me.  

I used all my longshots (the above three plus Visionaire and Court Vision) and threw out Pyro and the Colonel and I got nothing.  There must be A LOT OF WISEGUYS out there who threw out BB entirely in the exotics (as well as the other two short price horses) to get that kind of payday.  The tri and exacta were awesome as well.  Fastest horse on top of three horses who have run the zeros.  I feel...carsick!  

Results prove the TG figures are on the money.  It is so awful that the filly went down, but that is another thing the figures point to a little (sadly).  

Congrats to the winners.  

HP

[HP]

Actually I\'m realizing I misstated this.  The Colonel and Pyro must\'ve been on all the losing tickets.  I CAN\'T SEE STRAIGHT.  Damn.

[jimbo66]

Well, I will count myself amongst the idiots HP and not amongst the wise guys.

I liked ToE, like you, and the bulk of my plays keyed three horses in the superfecta slots, Tale of Ekati at 40-1, Denis of Cork at 25-1, plus Court Vision.

The fastest TG horse runs first.  The only horse with more than 1 race at the \"0\" level (weight adjusted) and thus the 2nd fastest horse, runs 2nd.  My longshots run 3rd and 4th, and I am doing nothing but rip up tickets.

I was stubborn with Big Brown off the board......

It would not have taken much of a saver to hit the 58k trifecta.

BTW, I will leave the figure making to TG, but I would be really really surprised if this wasn\'t a new top.  Either that or we about 18 \"x\'s\"!!!

Not sure what to do with a horse coming into the preakness off a negative 5, running about about 6 horses, all 7 or 8 points slower.........

[Caradoc]

HP, I\'m right there with you.  Exacta and tri boxes with the 2d, 3rd and 4th finishers and I stubbornly leave out the high figure in the race.

I don\'t see how BB can come back in two weeks and do anything other than X out, severely so.

[HP]

Makes me feel a little better...  I can\'t be too upset, since the question \"what do you like about this race?\" was answered \"BB looks like Bellamy Road.\"  You toss the favorite because you think he\'ll kill the payday.  It\'s not like this doesn\'t happen all the time...you often see the prohibitive favorite on top of bombs paying off like gangbusters...but still...$58K is...RIDICULOUS!  Somebody must\'ve banged BB and Colonel until it HURT!  

The two I liked best were the filly and Tale of Ekati, and after looking at the board...CVision, Visionaire and DoCork were must uses at the prices.  To make it worse, I saved money by having the confidence to throw out the hugely overbet Colonel.  I chucked Pyro and at the last minute threw in...Adriano!  BB keyed on top of my five longshots gives me the whole enchilada.  Effin\' embarrassing.  I\'m putting the kids to bed now.  Thanks to Jimbo and Caradoc for their merciful posts.  

I\'m from Brooklyn and we invented \"wait till next year...\"  

HP

[HP]

My original post is on 5/1, back a few pages.  I just don\'t want to be accused of being full of it...

[HP]

Now I\'m really sick.  

David Patent wrote about using BB.  

He wrotw - In betting races, I always employ some kind of hedge, and sometimes multiple hedges. I\'m going to key BB in one \"theory\" of the race and in another throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and hope that it sticks.


I wrote - DP,

I agree with you 1,000%. A small hedge with BB on top or in the middle makes some sense, because you may get bombers in 2,3 or 1,3. The one thing I left out...horses off a big top coming into the Derby...you know how they do. At best, a SMALL hedge is all I will do. No way I will do MULTIPLE hedges and kill my value. Best to you man...HP

Of course I did not use that hedge, but...well you can read this for yourself.  David probably hedged himself into some part of the juice.  CAN I FOLLOW MY OWN CRAP?!?  noooooo!  

This is really it!  

Congrats to DP.  He must\'ve hit it.  

HP

[Caradoc]

Here\'s the worst of it.  A few minutes before the race, my wife sits down next to me.  She asks why I like the filly and ToE.  I explain my reasoning and how I think BB is likely to regress significantly.  She then says\" \"But isn\'t it possible, given what you said, that the favorite will run much worse than last time and still may win?\" It was at this point that I should have known I would lose.

[HP]

Caradoc, My missus is a killer too.  Jerry can tell you the stories about my wife giving me winners (War Emblem and SARAVA in the Belmont Stakes).  I didn\'t read your earlier posts, but my comments on Eight Belles and Tale of Ekati were \"use on top,\" so we read the same way.  I thought BBrown had to be GREAT to win...and he was.  I have to say I am not big on \"savers.\"  But ONE hedge for $58K is rough.  

On the big days YOU HAVE TO USE THE FASTEST HORSE!  The crowds are HUGE!  This is the whole juice of these 100,000+ crowds!  We use TG and we think everybody knows!  They DON\'T KNOW!  I will be cold in my grave before I learn.

[dpatent]

Indeed, HP.  We keyed BB on top w/ 10 horses.  We also played a saver tri box(using BB and 10 others) that hit for a smaller amount.  Had BB been out we\'d have missed the Super but the tri would have paid around $25k instead of $3,400.

The key was getting Col. John and Pyro out.  Look at last year\'s Super -- over $40k with the favorite first and the second choice third with an 8:1 third but a 50:1 shot 4th.  Most people can\'t afford to go 10-12 deep so you get huge value when you can get 1 or 2 longshots in the Super in a 20-horse field.

I have kicked myself for being an idiot in a number of other years, so I feel your pain.

[girly]

What kills me is in my notes I have 6 horses only listed for distance- 4 were the super horses-It was right there, the presumptive winner, 2 live long shots from thoro and my man Coa with TOE. I didn\'t have enough faith in the poor little filly with a big heart. I\'m so sorry-(for Eight Belles)

[HP]

Congratulations David.  I agree there was no point of using Colonel and Pyro.  Excellent job.  HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t know who\'s dreaming HP, you or the man of a million combinations. He called 9 horses \"challenged\" 2 of them hit the board...lol

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Congratulations David.  I agree there was no point
> of using Colonel and Pyro.  Excellent job.  HP

[fkach]

This is not going to make anyone feel any better about the Derby, but it may help in the future.
 

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42221,42249#msg-42249