Paid Workout

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver,

Chapman loved his horse, but he loved his family more. He knew the sands in his hourglass were running low. He did what he did with Smarty to provide long term for his family. He made the right decision and Smarty\'s first crop has hit the track and based upon earnings he\'s throwing runners.

Should Big Brown win the Belmont, I believe by retiring undefeated he could command an initial $200,000 stud fee. That would return the buyers $50,000,000 investment before his first crop raced.

Other than hooves that cracked, I haven\'t seen an issue with Big Brown and should he prevail at 12 poles I would have to consider him a sound animal to breed with. That said, you never know if an individual is going to breed well. Cigar and War Emblem were certainly busts. Big Brown could sire slow and/or infirm horses, but the initial money is there and a reasonable man would be foolish to let it slip through his fingers.

Big Brown to retire after crossing the line in the Belmont.



Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Girly agreed. And it could have started four or
> five years ago with Smarty but we will never know
> because no one is willing to ask the tough
> questions.
>
> Sometime these deals are like the old dot.com
> IPO\'s where everyone wants in because it is easy
> money early and who cares what happens later. And
> sometimes they are not.
>
> Remember the old guy Chapman wanted to keep racing
> Smarty. He wasn\'t through with riding the wave.
> However there was considerable pressure on him to
> sell and stop racing Smarty. Even the \"You can\'t
> have you cake and eat it too\" logic wasn\'t working
> with the old guy because the money was meaningless
> to him. He knew he couldn\'t take it with him. So
> he was beat on pretty good to sell and quit which
> he eventually did. Simply because someone wanted
> his asset and did not want others to get it.
>
> If someone comes along and says they will give
> $10M for a 5% stake in Big Brown and wants to
> Breed him to Billy Goats will the current Stallion
> Shareholders be tempted to take it.
>
> The answer is probably yes.........

[ajkreider]

I think the last couple of Preakness\'s (with Curlin and Bernardini) has spoiled us a bit.  BB\'s was still the third quickest in the last 12 years.

[fasteddie]

Enough with the cracked hooves! Buckpasser was the greatest horse never to race in the TC (bad feet) yet he made a big (positive) impact on the breed.

[Silver Charm]

CtC,

The Smarty\'s and the Big Browns (if he closes) are made into National Treasures. The Standards should be higher. No knows if they are because no one asks the tough questions.

I just finished some in-house painting. I mixed Red, White and Blue paint and I am expecting it to come out Brown. If it doesn\'t I know some real good Auctioneers who can manipulate some Sales and still get me my money back.

Sound familiar.........

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

With red and blue you\'re liable to get Big Purple.......if you add white I think it likely to be Big Lilac.

If you want to see how long your Big Lilac will last expose it to the elements. If you want to preserve the beauty of your Big Lilac you might want to protect it. Maybe put it in a frame with a glass cover.

Perhaps with time, the public will clamour for your Big Lilac. Maybe not. But in the near term a good art dealer might get you a nice price for your Big Lilac. Maybe you\'ll take it. Maybe you won\'t.


http://www.ibiblio.org/wm/paint/auth/gogh/irises/gogh.irises.jpg


Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> The Smarty\'s and the Big Browns (if he closes) are
> made into National Treasures. The Standards should
> be higher. No knows if they are because no one
> asks the tough questions.
>
> I just finished some in-house painting. I mixed
> Red, White and Blue paint and I am expecting it to
> come out Brown. If it doesn\'t I know some real
> good Auctioneers who can manipulate some Sales and
> still get me my money back.
>
> Sound familiar.........

[smalltimer]

I think it would more like a sour grape color.

[fkach]

Jimbo,

I wasn\'t patting myself on the back. I was pointing out a type of overlay that exists in this game that can still be exploited from time to time with only limited knowledge and skill.

With all due respect, when you cash a $2.60 bet with a 87.5% chance of winning, your long term edge is over 13%. Add a 3%-5% rebate on top of that and your long term edge starts approaching 20%. Every time you do it, that\'s another 15%-20%. That\'s MONSTER return!

Please let me know the next time you are fairly certain you have a 15%-20% edge and can also bet a large chunk of your bankroll without any risk of ruin. It rarely exists. Large edges do exist from time to time, but they are usually among much lower probability bets.

Place betting can be attractive. When you cash around 80% of your place bets long term (which I have over the last few years at just under a 10% return), you can risk a fairly high percentage of your bankroll without the risk of ruin. You can certainly bet WAY more per bet than you can in exotics.

Some people believe you should only try to make major scores. I understand that perspective. It feels great when you make a score and gives you bragging rights. However, as we all know, most people that make major scores from time to time also hit a low percentage of their bets and have to bet a much smaller percentage of their bankroll to avoid ruin.  

Dealing with that kind of volatility makes a lot of sense as long as you have a long term edge. I believe there is no reason not to take both approaches.

At the end of the year only two things matter.

1. How much money did you get through the windows.

2. What was the ROI on the money you got through the windows.

I would argue that betting 10X my normal bet with better than a 15% edge on the Preakness was the smartest thing \"I\" could possibly do in the race. I didn\'t see any exotics I thought had a better expectation, though I thought my cold exacta was reasonable because I had a couple of insights into Yankee Bravo.  

The bottom line is that it\'s not the amount of money you win or lose on any given day that counts. It\'s the amount of money you get through the windows and at what edge.

I think there should be a rule against posting about 100K scores if over the year you had to put 99K through the windows to win it. ;-)

[alm]

The Thoro site is full of a lot of smart guys, but when it comes to breeding there aren\'t many here who even begin to know what they are talking about.

Many pre-Derby posts reckoned that BB couldn\'t get 10 furlongs because he was sired by a sprinter...excuse me, but a foal only gets half his genetic material from his sire.  And the half he gets from the sire has less impact on his stamina than the half he gets from the dam.

Please do some freakin homework.  The first mammal genome that was decoded was the horse genome.  There is a ton of insight you all can learn about horse breeding from reading about it.

While it is true that the breed has overall been impacted negatively by 30 years worth of dominant emphasis on frail specimens, there is a reason this happened the way it did.  It wasn\'t only about ill-informed breeders making commercial decisions, it was about a substantial change in the equine phenotype that could compete successfully in Triple Crown races.

Read the Equix Biomechanics site for its history of this development.  The pivotal stallion in this change was not someone like Secretariat, it was a miler: Fappiano.  The sire and source of all those Unbridled skeletal problems.  Also the source of the big chested power individual that could motor for 10 furlongs.

This cannot be turned around easily because the prizes are what they are.  You can\'t beat these individuals in the early part of their career in the Triple Crown with a galloper.  That era ended and it ain\'t coming back soon.

By the way, BB may fail at stud not because of his physical frailties (assuming he has any) but because the sire passes 2 distinct phenotype skeletal structures...that of one of his own sire\'s 2 parents.  If BB is dominant, genetically speaking, on the wrong side of this equation, he\'s a bust.

[smalltimer]

Note to the room:  All you smart guys in the room, quit being so stupid....
DO your homework !!  May I suggest \"My Little Pony\" and then graduate to  
\"Equix Biomechanics\", authored by alm.  
At this point, Big Brown will be either 50% dominant, or 50% bust, or he may be sterile and we\'ll never know.
\"Those convinced against their will, remain unconvinced still.\"
Alm, when you become condescending to \"smart\" people, it\'s not well received.

[alm]

I\'m not being condescending...just factual.  Do some reading.

[RICH]

I would love top see that too. Some track should put up a 2-3 million dollar purse for early October, and screw the BC. Would you want see 2 of the best horses in years battling out on the poly mess. It wouldn\'t mean a thing, and there folks lies a problem

[richiebee]

Would love to see CD or Belmont run a series of dirt races with big purses
(preferably graded races) on the same day or weekend as the BC.

For once the lack of a central sanctioning body could work in horseplayers\'
favor.