Colonel John

[jbelfior]

A :58 breeze at Delmar yesterday. Flying under the radar due to questions about his ability to handle regular dirt. Sort of a forgotten horse.

Will face Harlem Rocker, Tale of Ekati, Pyro, Macho Again, Mambo in Seattle(?), Tres Borrachos, Da\'Tara, Tiz Now Tiz Then, Anak Nakal, etc. in the Travers. Not exactly a stellar group.

Perhaps his Derby debacle had more to due with a light preparation than the Churchill Downs dirt. You may get 12-1 or better to find out in 10 days.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Uncle Buck]

If Corey Nakatani mounts this horse - he will be a complete TOSS. Nakatani is DREADFUL these days. Vegas might want to hire him as a COOLER

[jbelfior]

I agree. I don\'t go near Colonel John unless Garrett Gomez rides.

Added dimension in last (Swaps-G2) prompting :47; 1:10 4/5 which may be better than the cupcake races they gave him to prepare for the Derby. He was nowhere near the early pace in either of his 2 Santa Anita preps. No wonder he was 15 out of it after a half mile in Kentucky.  


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

JoeB in the Sham he set the pace.

[jbelfior]

Silver:

Yes he did; in :50, 1:14 for 1 1/8th. Not exactly testing fractions.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[toppled]

If you remember his #s on Derby day his debacle was due to the fact he entered the race with slower Thoro-Graph #s than a few of the others, and he left no better.  Unless his #s are competitive with the other contenders, it doesn\'t matter what surface he\'s on.

[MonmouthGuy]

A 3 is a 3 is a 3.  


He was slow and an underlay in the Derby, now 12-1 may not be an overlay, but accurately reflect his chances.

[miff]

Horses have consistently outrun their California TG figs when shipping east and a Cali synth 3 may not translate to a 3 on dirt.FWIW,his RAG figs are closely in line with TG.


Mike

[Silver Charm]

JoeB are you implying things such as pace as to be considered when applying sheet-based handicapping principles?

How dare you.........

[MonmouthGuy]

Miff.

I understand that many people take that view.

That logic (and the fact that Heatseeker, Zenyatta and Gayego had jumped up at Oaklawn) was part of the reason that he was made the 9-2 second choice in the Derby.

He was a winning, but slow horse before the Derby. For whatever the reason, he was slow in the Derby.  And then he was slow when he shipped back to California.

Sometimes, slow is slow.  He may beat me at 12-1, and I will tip my hat.  I am hoping he goes off closer to 4-1 and will be betting based on the assumption that he runs another 3.

[fkach]

>>>I understand that many people take that view.

That logic (and the fact that Heatseeker, Zenyatta and Gayego had jumped up at Oaklawn) was part of the reason that he was made the 9-2 second choice in the Derby.<<<

Perhaps now that TG has a larger sample, Jerry can weigh in on whether the artificial surface figures are flatter than the dirt figures and/or whether the top horses tend to move forward when switched to dirt.

I know I was expecting Colonel John to run faster on dirt outside of CA for the reason you highlight.

[jbelfior]

Silver:

Thanks. Needed a laugh today.


As for Colonel John: many are tossing him because of his top as being too slow (3). My feeling is that this is not your usual Travers. If Harlem Rocker, Pyro, and D\'Tara are the ones I have to be concerned with, then I\'ll take my chances assuming I get value and Gomez.


Besides, I thought one can make money in this game by projecting forward moves in late summer 3 yos as opposed to simply tagging them for what they accomplished in the spring.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Agree Joe.

And since when was winning the SA Derby a bad spring.

[Michael D.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Agree Joe.
>
> And since when was winning the SA Derby a bad
> spring.



since last spring.

[Lost Cause]

Michael D. Wrote:
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>
>
>
>
> since last spring.


LOL...