Early Thoughts on Friday's BC Races

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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  Ladie\'s Classic - I am stubborn, and will be
> trying to beat Zenyatta again.  Carriage Trail is
> a throwout, off a 3 point new top as a 5 year old,
> coming back on short rest and having shown an
> affinity for Keenland only, which is different
> than Pro-Ride.  Gonna go three deep here.  I think
> Cocao Beach has the most upside of these and she
> reportedly worked out beautifully over the
> Pro-Ride.  She should be a fair price (5-1),
> although her workout got a lot of writeups.  Will
> also use Music Note and Hysterical Lady.  Expect
> HL to be an overlay as it seems she has \"proven\"
> she isn\'t a synthetic horse, although I can make a
> case she bounced off the two negative 2\'s and as
> the fastest horse in the race, with the speed to
> get a 1w/1w trip, I have to use her a bit.  I
> believe she is the best filly in the country, just
> not sure about the Pro-Ride.

I am looking at entries/odds in the NY Daily News. Zenyatta is the shortest
price favorite in the BC sequence at 3/5, and at that price I can not use her.
Hysterical Lady at 15/1 (can\'t imagine she goes off at odds that generous) drew
very well and GG\'s tactics here pretty obvious.

Ginger Punch (9/2) ran a career best TG# in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont (also
the lowest # in the field); I think the crafty Frankel may have backed off on
her since then, looking for the big effort in the big event.

Cocoa Beach and Music Note would have to move forward to be competitive with
their older rivals, and the uncertainty of the forward move plus the surface
uncertainty means that I will leave them off the ticket.

Agreed that Carriage Trail is unlikely to repeat her smashing Kee effort, but I
am leaning towards using her on small tickets based on Phipps/McGaughey\'s
history of success in this race.

The Play:-- In the last BC double in the Friday session, using the Euros (Folk
Opera, Halfway to Heaven)in the BCFM Turf with Hysterical Lady, Ginger Punch
and Carriage Trail in the BC Ladies

[Josephus]

Josephus Wrote:
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> I think IB is very vulnerable, she\'s been beating
> up on weak, short fields. BB is not crazy about
> the distance or the surface.  Whenever she\'s been
> challenged, she lost. She\'s going to be chasing
> the speed and this time when she makes her move,
> there will be older, classier fillies to run at
> her.  I like Ventura and Intangaroo (who always
> looks to slow, but gets them in the last 1/8).
> Also, Zaftig and Lady Sprinter are dark horses.
>
> I think Cocoa Beach has a good shot at Z.
>
> And I will be betting against Curlin.  He\'s over
> the top and not great on anything but dirt.  His
> foes in Dubai were a joke this year and so were
> the ones he faced in the U.S.  If Fairbanks is in
> the race, he and Casino Drive will run with him
> for a mile +, and then I think the Euros have a
> legit shot this year and the race is up for grabs.


Ahem

[P-Dub]

Josephus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Josephus Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I think IB is very vulnerable, she\'s been
> beating
> > up on weak, short fields. BB is not crazy about
> > the distance or the surface.  Whenever she\'s
> been
> > challenged, she lost. She\'s going to be chasing
> > the speed and this time when she makes her move,
>
> > there will be older, classier fillies to run at
> > her.  I like Ventura and Intangaroo (who always
> > looks to slow, but gets them in the last 1/8).
> > Also, Zaftig and Lady Sprinter are dark horses.
>
> >
> > I think Cocoa Beach has a good shot at Z.
> >
> > And I will be betting against Curlin.  He\'s
> over
> > the top and not great on anything but dirt.
> His
> > foes in Dubai were a joke this year and so were
> > the ones he faced in the U.S.  If Fairbanks is
> in
> > the race, he and Casino Drive will run with him
> > for a mile +, and then I think the Euros have a
> > legit shot this year and the race is up for
> grabs.
>
>
> Ahem


Pretty lame dude. You actually bumped a post about yourself to show us how smart you think you are. Its a better idea to let others notice and respond.

You picked the 5/2 wise guy horse to beat IB. Good job.

BTW, its one thing to say the Euros have a chance or to say a \"quick footed\" Euro will win.  Its entirely different to actually pick the correct one.  Kinda like saying \"I think a Euro will win the Turf.\" Great, now which one??

Now go get some ice for your arm, bending it awkwardly behind you to pat yourself isn\'t good for it.

[Josephus]

P-Dub

I bumped it up as a convenience (because I think it was off the 1st Forum List screen) to those who might want to follow up on a point I made in my post about \"It\'s not the surface\".  I just reversed the order. I could have put it up after the \"surface\" post.  Sorry you were offended. My point was not about picking winners, but why I thought 2 particular favorites Indian Blessing and Curlin were overrated and why.

[P-Dub]

Cool.

I think a lot of us played against those two.  The question was...who do you play??

[Josephus]

Agreed.  In my case, I played Ventura (as you said, a lot of us did) no surprise. In the Classic, based on how I saw the Euros performing during the day, I used all of them in exactas and tri\'s with Casino Drive and Champs Elysees and boxed them in   the top 3 spots over Curlin in the supers. OK in the exactas, but no cigar in the others;but those decisions were not made until the time of the race.