Betting patterns at Gulfstream

[covelj70]

Same deal but not as aggregious.

1 and 6 looked like they should be heavy chalk and they were on the ML

First flash, 2 is 3-5 and 5 is 5-2. I think they were 5 and 6 to 1 respectively on the ML but I could be wrong about that.  1 and 6 are both 5-1 respectively at first flash.

2 wins over the 5 with a bomber coming in 3rd.  

McPeek was the trainer in the 8th and he also one the other 3 year old race in the 6th.

Thank you for starting this string as I was going to go very heavy on the 6 in the 8th but I didn\'t when I saw the same suspicious patterns that you had highlighted here.  Thank you very much.

[firmturf]

Is it considered a \"pattern\" when the horse I bet keeps running a good second when I bet to win? If so, that\'s happened a lot this GP meet.

[NoCarolinaTony]

UB

They would need a couple of years of steady winners at this rate to accumulate anything near the losses incurred fro MAGNA.

NCT

[Rick B.]

I did a \"quick and dirty\" analysis.

I compared the final odds of the winners to their ML, and flagged anyone who went off at odds that were 50% or more different than the ML -- that\'s all, no opening odds vs. final odds (don\'t have that anyway), no pool size considerations, just raw odds comparisons.

So far, GP has run 36 races, and in 12 of them, the final odds of the winner deviated from the ML by 50% or more: lower 11 times, higher only once.

The trainers of these horses are:

Carey, Julia (yeah, who?)
Catalano
Hills
Jerkens, H.A.
Maker
McPeek (2)
Mott (the 50% \"overlay\")
Poulos, L.
Tagg
Walder
Weaver

I\'m not a professional linemaker, so I don\'t know if being more than 50% off from the public 1/3 of the time on winners is acceptable or not. Absent that information, I don\'t know what to make of these numbers. I might point out that I don\'t know how many times a horse was bet down 50% or more from his ML and DID NOT win, which I probably should do as soon as I can find a few more minutes.
 
I didn\'t do runner types yet, either. For now, I\'d keep an eye on the tote board.

[Boscar Obarra]

I haven\'t been watching but I do know this.

 The smart money is always good result wise. The question is usually  how good are they in hiding what they are actually doing.

 Maybe they are getting greedy/sloppy at GP, maybe a bad odds line is highlighting some of their plays. Florida in the winter was always a tough place to make a good line.