CH

[nicely nicely]

Attached is the TG Sheet

[Caradoc]

So what is the definition of jump up or explosion we are using?  I\'m guessing that it is any horse that moves forward in their first or second start on traditional dirt at least 2 points from a prior top, after having made at least 2 of their last 3 starts on synthetics.

[mlnolan00]

Giant Gizmo??

Can you also include Intangaroo on the list after her performance in the Humana Distaff last year?

[covelj70]

Giant Gizmo is exactly who it was.  Great memory, thanks.  It was driving me crazy.

[TGAB]

Here are those sheets.

[elkurzhal]

Idiot Proof made a had a few big jumps going from poly to dirt.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

Given some of the discussion on this thread and your investment in I Want
Revenge, what would you think if Mullins changed course and brought ITW to
Keeneland for the Blue Grass?

Less shipping/less wear and tear on the animal racing on synthetic?

[jimbo66]

Richie,

Interesting point and it is funny you ask it, because I just had the same discussion with a good friend and my old man, each of whom also has about 10% of the pool on I WAnt Revenge.  

I wouldn\'t mind seeing him race at Keenland on the poly, have an OK or slightly off race, similar to STreet Sense in his last prep, then move back to the dirt in the DErby.  As you say, less wear and tear on the poly,

The problem with the Wood race is that I really have no idea how I want him to run in the race.  A pair up, which most would say is extremely unlikely, might be no good in that it would be two huge races in a row and make a bounce in the Derby likely.  A 2 or 3 point regression might seem OK at first glance, but then he is sittign on 0-2-x or 0-3-x and the big bounce comes in the Derby.  If he bounces to the moon in the Wood, he might not make the derby and even if he does, it will make him look like the other \"one and done\' dirt move ups.  

So, not sure what to hope for, other than a starting slot in the derby file and a healthy horse at long odds.

[nicely nicely]

Idiot Proof - attached

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- you have stated exactly one of the reasons I like him better for the Wood than the Derby. Another has to do with certain testing procedures in California, and Kentucky (supposedly, we\'ll see).

[Halo Fire]

Jim,

I remember last year you loved Tale of Ekati. So did I. Have you seen Hello Broadway\'s sheet? Isn\'t it a carbon copy of ToE\'s?

[miff]

\"A pair up, which most would say is extremely unlikely, might be no good in that it would be two huge races in a row and make a bounce in the Derby likely. A 2 or 3 point regression might seem OK at first glance, but then he is sitting on 0-2-x or 0-3-x and the big bounce comes in the Derby\"

Hi Jim,

The 0-2-x etc is a very tough read pre Derby(see Smarty Jones).Horses rarely win the derby off a poor effort going in.On pre derby big fig occasions, like with IWR,you can bet that Mullins is going to try to get this horse to the Wood cranked about 85-90 %. Unless IWR is a freak, I would wish for a nice effort and not get too caught up in what may appear to be an impending 0-2-x pattern.No doubt in some instances that pattern can be really predictive.With the pro ride/synth/poly to dirt in play, I believe all patterns are somewhat less predictive. Good Luck!

Mike

[covelj70]

going back just a bit further, Hello Broadway\'s sheet is a carbon copy of Nobiz Like Showbiz

I doubt it will happen but it would be great if Hello Broadway somehow wins today with another 4 and takes a bunch of action in the Derby with those slow figs.

Hello Broadway could be a nice later 3 year old/older horse just like Nobiz was but he\'s not a Derby horse.

[jimbo66]

Halo,

The sheets are carbon copies, but the story is different.

Tale of Ekati jumped up in the wood, ran a decent race in the derby and gave value to some of the superfecta players.  There is an old thread somewhere on the board where Miff and I argued about TAle of Ekati, where he had labeled him a slow rat.  Tale of Ekati, as evidenced by his wins in the Jerome and Cigar Mile wasn\'t slow.  Combined with the Wood, that makes either 2 or 3 grade one wins (not sure about the Jerome\'s grade).  Tale of Ekati appeared to be a \"slow rat\" with a \"stagnant pattern\" because he had distance limitations. Once he was pushed back to the 1 mile distance in the fall he suddenly \"developed\".

I would argue that Hello Broadway\'s first race this year is not enough evidence to suggest a stagnant pattern and no development.  He was caught down inside in the 7 furlong race, in a speed duel, which is not his forte, was passed, then came back again late in the race.  He will move forward today.  He doesn\'t have the distance challenged pedigree that Tale of Ekati did.  

I will put a disclaimer on the analysis though, as I do have a futures bet on Hello Broadway.  I dutched him and I Want Revenge in derby futures pool 1.

Good luck.