I think we're down to 5 in the Derby

[mdspwt1]

I think the bluegrass can be a meaningful prep race and should not be discounted simply because it is the bluegrass, run on poly, and is only three weeks away. It is certainly fun to dissect the numbers and interpret patterns but unless you are inside the head of the trainer you have no idea if the race is being used to further condition/educate the animal or if it is an all out effort which is indicative of the horse\'s truest ability. Street Sense was an excellent example of this. Carl had gotten all he wanted out of SS in the Tampa Bay Derby and just wanted to make sure SS was rated, relaxed and making on run at the end. As long as he did just that, finish 5th or 1st, he would be happy.

It will be interesting to see the numbers from Kee (and OP as well). While there seems to be only a few that, as noted by other posters, could get down to that -2 etc.. number needed on the first saturday in May, there are certainly some nice 2yo foundations going into this weekend. GQ had a nice one as does the Ron Mc horse and Terrain as well (in the BG). In order for any of these to contend it would be nice to see some new tops by a couple of points (in MASSONE\'s case) or a pairing (in GQ\'s case). Terrain looks to have a bit too much to do at this stage.

The numbers and patern were nice enough with GQ but it was the appearence at the track that sold me...especially in the post parade. Hold me back looked awesome as well...just notes...

[big18741]

TGJB Wrote:
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 I\'m gonna save my positive opinions for the
 seminar. And I have a few. Think Volponi.

40-1/low profile connections/good pattern/competitive last # ?

Musket Man?

Any chance of a pre Derby special this year now that the 9f preps are finished? You\'ve done it the past few years after scoring the Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby.
                           
                                  Thanks

[flushedstraight]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> The derby winner is likely to have to run a negative 1 to negative 2, or so. I can\'t see Win Willy doing that.


Agreed, based on this bunch and also recent derby history, but at the same time it wont take a negative # to get into the trifecta unless a new trend begins this year. I\'ll keep betting against that until it happens.

At this point, given the expected odds of the top choices and their various X factors (such as the first time dirts, too few starts, Jerkins outside of NY/Fla, etc) on top of the usual derby day X factors, diving into the win pool is hardly enticing. The plan is to find a bomb or two and spread out in exotics with the faster ones while using WPS pools for saving.

[TGJB]

We\'ll take a look at a pre-Derby package later this week.

[jack72906]

At this point it\'s tough for me to zero in on any 1,2, or even 5 particular horses. The post draw will have a huge influence on my decision given the running styles of the main competitors.

If Dunkirk (if he gets in) draws anything outside 10, he\'s a toss IMO(Yes, I know about Big Brown). If Freisan Fire ends up in around 5-7, that\'s a prime spot for horse of his style with 7 weeks rest. You get the idea.

One thing is for sure, is that it\'s wide open and I\'m anxious to see the numbers and the seminar.

I\'m really anxious to see if Regal Ransom runs. He was breezing :47 and :48 at Keeneland back in December and he ran the 2 in his first start. I kind of like him. We know he\'ll go off at a BIG price.

[congaree1]

I can\'t imagine betting Dunkirk in the win spot, since he still has not won a stakes race. although he is super talented. When was the last time a horse won the derby and he still hasn\'t run through conditions? He is way to under seasoned IMO, to win the race.Other than Giacamo, will all do respect to thorograph, I need to see at least a 100 beyer or higher to be a contender in the win spot.

[toppled]

Dunkirk ran a 108 corrected Beyer in the Florida Derby