So I have A Question

[TGJB]

Every year, only a couple of the Derby runners are reported not to be training well coming up to the race. (I\'m not talking about trainer\'s comments, those are always positive). The rest are reported by Welsch and others to be training somewhere between good and great.

So how come so few tops are run in the Derby?

Now, I know some are going to cite the circumstances of the race itself. But that presumes the reports to be meaningful.

Bad reports are often meaningful. Good ones, not so much. Great ones, maybe.

[number5858]

I have to wonder how many would have new tops if you looked at their 1 1/8 times in the Derby. Wouldn\'t the synthetic trend be affecting it too? Kind of hard to have a new dirt top if you have only run on synthetic before. I do agree with you about the bad reports though.

[bellsbendboy]

Derby horses are the best of their generation and sophomores work fast ( if they are any good).  Barbaro had the best Derby work I have ever seen and Street Sense was not far behind that work.  Churchill is a track that many horses do not like.

Hard to argue with your assessment about the race \"circumstances.  Clearly most Derby entrants are taking a quantum leap in class, running much further than they have run before and picking up substantial weight that probably equals a point or more on your figures. bbb

[Halo Fire]

Because the majority of them are coming FROM tops to begin with.

[analizethis]

Over the last six derbies (since 2003) 45 out of 114 starters have come off tops. This is 39.47% so the majority of the starters are not, in fact, coming off tops. Likewise if you break down the profile of the 18 trifecta horses over the same time period you\'ll see that 44.4% are coming off tops; 27.8% off pairs; 11.1% off \"offs\" and 16.7% off an x performance.
I was surprised that there wasn\'t a bigger spread between the field\'s profiles and the top three but that is what the numbers say.
Additionally, I think we need to be careful because measuring how horses perform in the Derby can become skewed by all the x horses at the back of the pact when in fact many of those jocks realizing they had no chance just cashed it in and jogged home (80% of the bottom half of the fields ran an x in those six derbies). Of course part of the challenge is identifying and tossing those bottom ten.

[David G Patent]

Since horses are supposed to be coming into this race in peak form yet still the vast majority don\'t run tops I wonder if anyone has looked at the performance of the horses who do train poorly in the 1-2 weeks heading up to the Derby?

I would expect it should be close to 100% if the works actually mean anything.

[Silver Charm]

Derby Distance?

[TGJB]

I think you guys are missing the point. I\'m saying that either the reports of horses doing well are not accurate, or they are accurate, but not relevant.