My Derby bet

[PatrickM]

As stated before, I have $30 to win on FF at 70-1 so betting him to win again at much lower odds actually seems like overkill though another $30 at 6-1 gets me $60 at 38/1 whic is pretty good if I like him, right? That said, here goes:

$1 TRI FF/POTN,RR,WSB, HMB, D/ POTN, CC, RR, WSB, HMB, IWR, D, FP, ADV, MR.HS $45

$3 TRI FF in 2nd to same group $135
$2 TRI FF in 3rd to same group $90

$50 win FF $50

$2 exb FF/ all horses in 3rd from above trifecta $40

A few exb\'s to some of the same and a few oddballs. May try for a P3 but have always found the P1 to be hard enough. Either way I\'m in for less than five hundies and if my piglet hits the board, I might actually come out with beer AND stripper money!!! Good luck guys/gals...

[Ace]

Since you offered your opinion, here is my bet:

W:  Mr. HS

Tri  MR.HS, RR / MR.HS, RR / FF, POTN, DUNK, WSB, CC
Tri  MR.HS, RR / FF, POTN, DUNK, WSB, CC / MR. HS, RR

[PatrickM]

Looks like we\'ll be rooting for each other, sort of.

I could easily live with a RR/MrHS/FF tri twice. Would definitely take the sting out of losing the future bet :-).

Good luck Ace

[number5858]

I don\'t get keying Mr. HS. He looks too slow to contend. What do you see that I am not seeing other than long odds?

[Michael D.]

A wet-fast surface would certainly change things, but here’s how I see it as of now -


Chocolate Candy - won\'t question the class of the Cal group after watching IWR annihilate his NY foes and PC win the Ark Derby. Has a decent run over the cushion at two, and a fine \'2\' at GG. Bred for dirt on bottom, bred to go long, and runs like he wants the mile and a quarter. Handled the course relatively well last work. Speculative of course, but at a decent price, I’m predicting a big jump first time dirt.

IWR - looks strong. Trainer shenanigans and 3-1 odds make this guy a difficult key though.

Summer Bird - good figure last. Benefits from the deluge of stalker types. Gets clean run for the first half of the race, then closes 5 wide. Fast final 1/4 makes up for the wide trip. A rather large bounce the risk, but the odds here are going to be huge.

Dunkirk - expecting a minor regression and a wide trip. Use underneath.

Papa Clem - first call was a substantial bounce, but the odds are going to be long here. Smart one-paced stayer gets a solid dose of stamina from 2nd dam. Valuable tactical speed, good post, and a strong jock. Good figure last. I still make a bounce the most likely outcome, but a use at big odds.

West Side Bernie - should benefit from a solid pace (involving his uncoupled entry-mate). Rides the rail then closes 5 wide. Sneaky stamina from 2nd dam. Good figure last.

Friesan - solid \'6\' type last year, looks like a \'2\' or \'3\' type now. Good number over the wet fast FG surface, and obviously moves up over similar at CD.

 
Chocolate Candy will be the key. IWR and SB get a bit of action on top, the others underneath.

[Ace]

Good question 5858.  But if as a part of my rationale you are looking for a detailed, nuanced pattern read, I\'m going to disappoint you. I\'m pretty much a novice at this Sheets thing, I\'ve probably only bought them 10 or 15 times in my life (TGJB may have records to confirm). When I do buy, I get the Analysis along with the ThoroQuick, and as often as not I have success ignoring the analysis and forming my own opinion based on the data. So to be honest, as stated before I have MrHS at 75-1 at a Vegas future book, a bet made based on seeing him in person out here in So Cal.  I stand to make a decent score already if he wins, but I would be upset if he wins and I didn\'t have any money on him in the exotics, which will pay so handsomely if he does (Five figures for sure on the Super).

I like the fact the trainer just won the richest horse race in the world (Well Armed) and is finally making a name for himself and seems to be a hay oats and water kinda guy who won\'t lose anything to the extra security/testing. I look at the sheets now and conclude that yes he\'s slower than the rest on numbers, but what says he can\'t make a big jump up on dirt like IWR did in NY?  Why is POTN more likely to do that than MrHS?  Or CC for that matter? MrHS will be multiples of their odds, and just as likely to jump up in my mind.

Ace

[MonmouthGuy]

Last year the $1 super paid $30k with a 5/2 on top and the 4th betting choice 2nd.

You don\'t necessarily need a 50-1 on top to be rewarded handsomely.  You might be more upset at yourself if some of the faster and more logical horses hit the top of the tote and you miss a 5 figure super b/c you didn\'t use a horse you are fond of like MHS on the bottom of a tri or super.

[Ace]

Agree, and yes I plan to play him in the lower rungs also. I just didn\'t want to type all that, and bore everyone on the board.

[chrifron]

The year that Smarty won and Lion Heart (2nd choice on the board) was next, the SFC paid $20k for a dollar--the 3rd place horse wasn\'t a complete toss-out (Imperialism).  All it took was the Pletcher longshot Limehouse closing for 4th (had the 1 post--just like WSB!) to blow the prices up.