I am of the mindset that although RA is a clear standout in this field, she is going to go off at short odds and there are several things not to like about her. When she gets rest she wins, but both of her loses have come on 15 days rest. Now she is coming off 14 days rest, draws the outside post in a large field, faces boys and is coming off a HUGE effort. Plus she has changed connections and her last workout was completely different than how she was working before the Derby. Many people feel she was not all out in the Oaks because that is how it looked. But she finished her last 1/8th in around 12 seconds or so, and they don\'t go much faster no matter how hard you whip them after running a 1 1/8th. So I think she is that rare horse that runs as hard as she can without being asked and I don\'t think there would have been much more there no matter what her Jock did. Because of all this in my opinion she figures to be an underlay, and it\'s just not my style to play into those types of situations. I let these types of horses beat me and when they do I don\'t let it bother me. As a guy who used to do this for a living, it is my firm opinion that this is the best long-term strategy for how to play this game. You can make far more money when you are right and it hurts far less when you lose. There\'s just nothing worse than liking two horses, one at 6/5 and one at 10-1, betting the 6/5 and watching the 10-1 beat you. On the other hand, when I bet the 10-1 and the 6/5 beats me, at least I know I was playing into a higher ROI situation and that I can be wrong about this far more often than I am right and still make more money by playing it that way. It also only takes me one Jack Daniels to get over losing that way before I feel smart again. Losing the other way is far worse, involves a cab ride home, etc.
My guess is that BD and RA are the pacesetters here. I suppose either one of them could just keep on going in the stretch, but I am betting they are going to beat each other up enough to set things up for the pace pressers. Because of this, I like PON and FF to run a strong race on Saturday. PON arguably ran the best race in the derby after going wide the entire time on a track he obviously didn\'t care for. He seems to hang a bit after he makes the lead, but he should have two good targets to run at here.
FF didn\'t run a lick in Derby, but I think he rebounds here and runs a really big one. If he is right, and I think he is, I make him the most likely winner if RA doesn\'t run her race. I also think MM has a good chance to hit the board as he came out of the Derby in good shape, worked well and seems like the hard knocking type who always manages to pick up a check.
My moonshot key horse in this race is going to be Terrain. I think he has a great chance to hit the board at a big price. This is his 3rd start off a layoff and if you know his trainer Al Stall at all you also know that his horses often move up considerably with this type of pattern. He\'s had two starts this year, one in the slop and one on Poly in which he may not have showed his best but still paired his two-year old top. Now he hopefully gets a fast dirt track, comes in with rest, has been training well and has every right to run a big one and move forward. I\'m not saying he wins, but if he goes off at anything near his morning line and hits the board he could trigger some nice payoffs.
GQ looked like a tired horse to me coming into the Derby, and I don\'t think he rebounds here. I think PC also runs an egg here based on his last work and a couple of recent all out efforts. His trainer says he always works bad, but his past work history before the Arkansas Derby says otherwise. I may use them as savers along with my top two and TE, but that\'s about it.
So that\'s how I am going to play the Preakness. My top two with MM and TE and hopefully hit a nice Tri. I probably will play a saver with RA, my top two and TE just in case because those combos will probably still offer some value.
Oh, yeah. And the Derby winner. I am of the opinion that he is legitimately a good little horse that is coming into his own. But he caught lightning in a bottle on Derby day and is unlikely to do so again here. I was watching horses on the rail outrun their odds all day long on Derby day. I even adjusted my bets at the last second to play the 9 and 10 in the derby in the Tri just in case they managed to stay on the rail the whole trip and hang around. I think the Derby is a case study for how the Jockey can sometimes make all the difference in a race. Do you think MTB wins that race with anyone other than Borel on his back? MTB also seemed to be skipping over that soupy track while many of the others were spinning their wheels. Even at 50-1 I think he was a huge underlay and figures to be an even bigger one on Saturday. Another one that if he beats me he beats me.
Good Luck to All and may they all come home safely.
