Preakness Odds

[jimbo66]

There is about 110k in the Black Eyed Susans - Preakness daily double.  Assuming they are somewhat indicative of the odds on the Preakness, it looks like:

Rachel - 6-5 favorite

Friesan Fire / POTN  - Co-second choices.  Maybe 9-2ish

Big Drama - 4th Choice  - 6-1ish

Musket Man / Mine that Bird - co-5th Choices -  8-1ish

[Michael D.]

Everybody is picking BD. I like the colt over the Pim strip, but the odds appear to be dwindling.

I\'m gonna have to key on my other longshot, TTP. Nice timing and a nice pattern to run a dirt top. MM as the 5th or 6th choice makes some sense.

Good luck with your doubles Jim.

[Silver Charm]

TTP did not look that long to me. He was around 13-1 last I looked. But then again nobody was long. 24-1 was the longest shot on the tote board.

MM was 16-1 and he was almost second in the Derby. Go figure.  

BD will have to beat me. A Montbrook going long is not a good proposition.

Thinking 7-1 on POTN was too good to be true. Considering how much this horse has been tugging down the backside in his last couple I gotta beleive Gomez will not be waiting around to see if Rachel is up to being tested. Baffert is too sharp to let go in here and he knows the two weeks better than any of these other guys excluding Lukas who doesn\'t have the horses.

Still too early to firmly commit to anything.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

The problem with playing longshots in these \"tourist\" betting pools, is that you don\'t get true odds.  To me, Take the Points should be about 30-1.  I don\'t think you get that.  He was in the teens today, maybe goes up a little tomorrow.  Everybody wants that longshot.  

Nice to be alive to some doubles.  Some very large ones, particularly General Quarters.  Paying $224, which is an overlay to me.  It will make betting tomorrow a bit easier.  Maybe I can put Rachel on the pick-4 ticket, since I am throwing Pletcher\'s 3-5 shot Affirmitaf off the ticket in the 1st leg......

Good luck.

[BitPlayer]

Using the final will-pays for the top three betting choices in the Black-Eyed Susan, I get:

Big Drama - 7.8
Mine That Bird - 11.7
Musket Man - 10.2
Luv Gov - 94
Friesan Fire - 6.7
Terrain - 37.4
Papa Clem - 12.5
General Quarters - 24.0
Pioneerof the Nile - 6.3
Flying Private - 99
Take The Points - 28.7
Tone It Down - 117
Rachel Alexandra - 1.1

Of course, I\'m expecting all of the real longshots to take more money in the win pool than they did in this one.

[Silver Charm]

TVG was putting the actual odds up. They did it twice from 5-6.

Rachel was 8-5.

If more money comes in on others (POTN, MM) she may go up or if it comes in on her the others go even higher.

who said this was a bad betting race

[Uncle Buck]

Here they are just in case anyone is curious. These are $2 will pays:

1. $73.40
2. $103.40
3. $97.60
4. $740.20
5. $56.80
6. $316.40
7. $116.80
8. $224.60
9. $65.60
10. $820.60
11. $258.40
12. $924.60
13. $16.80