Thanks again to TG for getting the sheets up so quickly for Sat.
I really think ticket structure is going to be key for this pick 6 sequence. There is a very clear cut sheet standout in all but one of the races (the Manhattan and even there this is one that makes alot of sense). This is one case where how you structure the tickets is just as important as your handicapping.
I will be using a modified Steve Crist Pick 6 structure where you break down your choices for each race into A\'s, B\'s and C\'s and you essentially need either 4A\'s and 2B\'s or 5 A\'s and a B or a C to get home to get the pick 6. There are as many as 29 combination or separate tickets that you need to bet and it\'s a huge pain in the xoxox logistically but my hit ratio on the pick 6 has gone way way up since I moved to this method a few years ago.
Anyway, in terms of the races themselves. Here are my thoughts on the key horse and backups in each race:
6th - Fabulous Stike - He just absolutely towers over these from a TG perspective. Benny the Bull is the only other fast one in the race but the connections have indicated he isn\'t fully cranked for this with the Smile Sprint at Calder being the main goal. I will back up with Silver Edition, Two Step Salsa and Desert Key but if Fabulous Strike shows up, it\'s his.
7th - I think this is the most competitive race on the card IF Forever Together doesn\'t fire. She doesn\'t tower over the field, especially with the weight she\'s giving up but she put up a good number off the shelf and if she improves at all 2nd time off the layoff, she\'s the obvious most likely winner. However, this one gets tricky if she doesn\'t fire as it\'s wide open after her. Captain\'s Lover is as fast as the rest of these and get\'s first time Lasix for Barry and the crew (Barry, any insight here? are we ready to fire?), I Lost My Choo is also fast but hates the soft going so if there is still moisture on the turf, she\'s a toss for me. I will also backup with My Princess Jess who is pretty fast and who Cornelio seems to fit like a glove. Caribean Sunset and Modern are both fast but I will play them to bounce second off the ship for Europe which we see so often and I don\'t think Diamondrella will have the same kind of kick going 1 mile as she does going shorter so I will play her to flatten out even though she\'s fast.
8th- This One\'s for Phil will be my key here as he\'s much faster than the others, even adjusting for the weight he\'s giving. I will back up with the entry from Goldolphin, Munnings who paired his two year old top in his first start off the layoff which is healthy and with Hull who isn\'t fast enough yet but could pop forward. He is very talented.
9th - Justwhistledixie is the key here with Funny Moon, Dream Play and Four Gifts as the backups. Dixie is the fastest with a great pattern and her connections tell me she is ready to fire so she get the job done with the nice stalking trip she figures to get behind GGG (who will be on the lead) and Dream Play. If Dixie isn\'t fully recovered from the foot bruise, then those other three stand out.
10th - Cosmonaut is my key in this race at a price (at least on the morning line). He\'s as fast as anyone coming in, gets weight, should save alot of ground near the lead and is going second off a long layoff (although his history says he starts fast and just stays there so I don\'t know how big of a deal the 2nd off a layoff is for him). I don\'t have alot of strong opinions in this one other than Cosmonaut. Marsh Side has good numbers to run back to but he is coming back from Dubai which is always tough and his last two numbers suggest he may have lost a step. Court Vision has a tendency to react to the big numbers which he ran last time so I think we can play him to bounce, Gio Ponti doesn\'t have the same kick going 1 1/4 as he does going a flat mile so I will play him to flatten out in the stretch. I will use whichever of the entry that Julien is on as the guy is pure magic on the turf so either Champs Elysses or Zambezi Sun will be one of my backups (they can\'t both run given that he is named on both). I will also use Lauro to improve second off the long layoff with big back numbers to run to and Cowboy Cal is in good from right now so I will use him in backups as well but he will have to work out a trip from the parking lot again like he did last time.
11th - Key is Charitable Man which I (and others) have been talking about for a month. Backups for me will be Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Dunkirk for the reasons that everyone has already talked about.
I will structure the ticket(s) in this case so that 3 of my singles have to win. If I get three of the keys home, then the backup horses can win the other 3 races and I would still get the 6.
Good luck to everyone, please let me know where you think I am off base so I can make any necessary adjustments.
