ROTW

[analizethis]

What\'s the race of the week going to be?

[TGJB]

Monmouth oaks, but it\'s gonna take a while.

[high roller]

WHAT A JOKE OF A RACE TO PICK, WHAT ABOUT THE SWORD DANCER, STOP GOSSIPING AND GET TO WORK!

P.S. NO SERIOUS PLAYER PLAYS MONMOUTH!  LOOK AT THE MINISCULE HANDLE

[sekrah]

I think whoever makes a stand against Just Jenda is foolish.  Cream of the crop here and is getting more comfortable each time she bounces off that 1.  I don\'t see her running anything slower than a 3 here (which is more than enough to win), with a good chance at pairing.

3-1 on JJ is tremendous value, IMO.

Bandora and MissUN have some price value in.

Malibu Prayer\'s line looks awful.



Key: Just Jenda
Use: Bandora, Hightap, Missunitednations

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think whoever makes a stand against Just Jenda
> is foolish.  Cream of the crop here and is getting
> more comfortable each time she bounces off that 1.
>  I don\'t see her running anything slower than a 3
> here (which is more than enough to win), with a
> good chance at pairing.
>
> 3-1 on JJ is tremendous value, IMO.
>
> Bandora and MissUN have some price value in.
>
> Malibu Prayer\'s line looks awful.
>
>
I thought the same about Just Jenda but what they say in the ROTW is true...that horse bounces big off of big figs every time..At the odds i\'m willing to try to beat with the 2 and 5.
>
> Key: Just Jenda
> Use: Bandora, Hightap, Missunitednations

[sekrah]

For the first time they run those big numbers, I agree.  As these horses mature, it is my opinion that they become less likely to react so harshley to the big number.

JJ first ran a 1 as an October 2yo.  Bounced to 10.
Her second 1 was a March 3yo.  Bounced to 5.

This is an animal capable of running negative numbers over the next 6-12 months!   I believe the probability for a big bounce here is much lower than the previous situations she came in off a 1.

[go zags]

Offspring of Menifee improve about 6 points from 2 yo to 3 yo, so I\'d be inclined to think JJ may not bounce much if at all especially with the time off before the last race.

Jerry - do you take the year over year maturation into account?  And if the sire for instance only showed minor improvement 2yo to 3yo (early developer) would you look at that differently?   Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this and all you do.

[TGJB]

Menifee\'s runners improve 4 3/4 points on average, but few if any ever ran a 1 as a 2yo, so it\'s unlikely this filly is a late developer-- she\'s unlikely to run neg 4\'s, especially since she hasn\'t been able to break through the 1 level in 9 months.

But yes, as a general question I do look at developmental tendencies in sires, especially when recommending buys.

As far as this filly goes, it took her 4 1/2 months to get back to the number BOTH times after she ran it. Could she pair up? Sure. But at 2-1 or less (which she will be) I\'ll take my chances. If she goes back as far as she has after every other  time she has run a 3 or better, she could be out of the tri, let alone the win spot.

[sekrah]

Increasing my bets involving Bandora.  Tremendous overlay at 30-1.

[sekrah]

.

[sekrah]

Bounce that one.